# Dynamics of Influenza Transmission in Nicaraguan Households

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · 2021 · $675,264

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
Influenza virus is an airborne pathogen of major medical and public health significance worldwide that causes
millions of severe respiratory infections and an estimated 500,000 deaths each year. Despite decades of
research, basic questions remain about the routes of influenza transmission and the effect of viral,
environmental, and host factors on transmission. This is especially true in tropical developing countries, where
the relative contributions of the routes of transmission and the effect of climatic, environmental and social factors
differ from temperate settings. To undertake a detailed investigation of influenza transmission in
Nicaragua, we propose to conduct a prospective household cohort study. The research questions
addressed build naturally on the findings of our two current studies, the Pediatric Influenza Cohort Study and the
Influenza Household Transmission Study in Managua, Nicaragua. The proposed study benefits from over 12
years of collaboration between the study investigators at the University of Michigan and the Nicaraguan Ministry
of Health and from the scientific capacity building in Managua that has resulted from numerous studies on
dengue and influenza. Specifically, we will conduct a 5-year household cohort study designed to examine
aerosol, droplet, and contact transmission of influenza in urban Nicaraguan households. Our central
hypothesis is that aerosol transmission is a major route of transmission of influenza in Nicaraguan
households and that it occurs primarily at night when people crowd together to both socialize and sleep.
We employ an innovative combination of rigorous epidemiological methodology, state-of-the-art technologies,
and mathematical modeling that will enable investigation of influenza transmission in a novel context with an
unprecedented level of detail. In Aim 1, we will investigate the potential for aerosol, droplet, direct contact, and
indirect contact transmission using air and surface sampling. In Aim 2, we will examine the effect of
environmental factors including temperature, humidity, precipitation, and ventilation proxies collected at the
household level on the transmission of influenza. In Aim 3, we will determine the effect of host factors that
condition exposure, including viral shedding and household crowding, sleeping conditions, and social
interactions, measured using surveys, contact diaries, and sociometric badges, on the risk of influenza
transmission. In Aim 4, we will characterize the effect of host factors, such as pre-existing immunity, age and
the presence of chronic diseases, that influence whether an exposed person becomes infected and whether that
infection progresses to disease or severe disease. This proposal addresses major gaps in knowledge on
influenza transmission in tropical developing country settings. It is thus timely and well-poised to have
substantial public health and scientific impact.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10078840
- **Project number:** 5R01AI120997-05
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
- **Principal Investigator:** AUBREE L GORDON
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2021
- **Award amount:** $675,264
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2017-01-01 → 2023-12-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10078840

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10078840, Dynamics of Influenza Transmission in Nicaraguan Households (5R01AI120997-05). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10078840. Licensed CC0.

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