# Ebola modeling: behavior, asymptomatic infection, and contacts (2019-nCoV Admin Supplement)

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · 2020 · $242,000

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY
We propose to use statistical methods we have used for Ebola virus disease forecasting in order to
project COVID-19 transmission at the state and municipal level, producing testable forecasts. These
will feature continuously updated estimates of the reproduction number (number of cases per case)
and permit us to assess the benefits of current interventions (social distancing, school closure).
 We also propose to conduct a close analysis of the fraction of cases traceable to known cases.
This statistic can be useful because it can indicate transmission through unknown routes or through
asymptomatic cases, but it can also be influenced by the efficacy of contact tracing itself. Many
cases that would have otherwise occurred are caught and prevented by contact tracing and isolation.
We will conduct network simulations to determine when large values of this presage epidemic growth
(depending on the reproduction number, and timeliness and yield of contact investigation).
 Finally, we will use detailed network simulation to yield a pandemic preparation road map
looking into the future. Specifically, specific events (rate of increase of cases, large number of
untraceable cases, cases in varying geographic areas) will yield specific actions (school closures,
mass gathering abrogation) despite uncertainty in the mode of transmission. These detailed models
will also be used for real time assessment of the timing and duration of school closure.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10129176
- **Project number:** 3R01GM130900-01A1S1
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO
- **Principal Investigator:** Travis Christian Porco
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $242,000
- **Award type:** 3
- **Project period:** 2019-09-01 → 2023-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10129176

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10129176, Ebola modeling: behavior, asymptomatic infection, and contacts (2019-nCoV Admin Supplement) (3R01GM130900-01A1S1). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10129176. Licensed CC0.

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