# Physical, Social, and Economic Environments and Firearm Fatalities among Youth

> **NIH ALLCDC K01** · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS · 2020 · $124,066

## Abstract

Project Summary / Abstract (30 lines)
As a social epidemiologist and junior faculty member at UC Davis, my career goal is to build a program of
research that identifies fundamental causes of violence and its determinants, and to use this understanding to
test effective approaches to reduce violence-related harm. The relationship between neighborhood-level
characteristics and firearm violence is well recognized. However, these multiple exposures likely operate in
complex and reciprocal ways with each other and with crime and violence that are not yet well understood.
Therefore, I propose to take advantage of an existing dataset built for an ongoing study of demolition and
rehabilitation of decaying properties in Cleveland, Ohio and Detroit, Michigan, for which I am the principal
investigator, to describe the range of neighborhood-level exposures in each of these cities and to identify how
these exposures work together to impact firearm violence. These objectives will be accomplished through three
specific aims: Aim 1: To describe variation in classes of neighborhood interventions across neighborhoods and
neighborhood characteristics in Cleveland, Ohio and Detroit, Michigan from 2010 through 2019; Aim 2: to
identify the neighborhood-level exposures that are most predictive of high levels of neighborhood youth firearm
violence; and Aim 3: to estimate effects of individual neighborhood interventions and classes of neighborhood
interventions on rates of neighborhood violent crime, firearm-related crime, firearm homicides, and firearm
suicides among youth and young adults age 10 to 29. I will use detailed datasets primarily built from parcel-
level administrative data in each city in order to accomplish the aims of the proposed study. These datasets
use micro-data to describe neighborhood characteristics such as home quality, foreclosure rates, land use
type, and vacancies. These micro-data are coupled with census variables on demographics, education levels,
and other socioeconomic indicators and are aggregated to census tracts. We also undertook a thorough and
systematic review of programs and policies hypothesized to influence violence prevention, either directly (e.g.
changes in policing strategies) or indirectly (e.g. incentives to encourage buying homes in specific
neighborhoods) and critical events, defined as expected and unexpected shocks to the cities, over the study
period (2010-2019). These interventions and events are mapped to specific locations and dates. I will use a
range of rigorous statistical methods, including latent class analysis, ensemble machine learning and causal
inference methods, and spatial analysis methods to accomplish the study aims. I have identified three critical
areas where continued training will prepare me to pursue my career goals and make important contributions to
the field of violence prevention. These include training in 1) spatial analysis, 2) criminology and criminal justice
theory, and 3) the analysis of mu...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10136967
- **Project number:** 1K01CE003224-01
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA AT DAVIS
- **Principal Investigator:** Rose Kagawa
- **Activity code:** K01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** ALLCDC
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $124,066
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2020-09-30 → 2022-09-29

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10136967

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10136967, Physical, Social, and Economic Environments and Firearm Fatalities among Youth (1K01CE003224-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10136967. Licensed CC0.

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