# Age, period, and cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in 47 national, longitudinally-followed cohorts

> **NIH NIH R01** · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · 2021 · $383,275

## Abstract

Age, period, and cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in 47
national, longitudinally-followed cohorts
Project abstract:
Available evidence suggests that, across the lifecourse, gender patterns in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders
are converging; however, (a) whether this convergence depends on developmental stage, (b) whether it is due
to more rapid increases among women compared with men or, conversely, more rapid decreases among men
compared with women, and (c) why it is happening all remain inadequately understood - representing a critical
knowledge gap. Indeed, intervention and prevention efforts require information about whether convergence is
limited to certain age groups, and most critically, why they occur. Further, potential increases in drinking among
women portend a potential public health crisis, requiring accurate forecasting of future burden. Without such
information, intervention and prevention efforts can be misplaced, focusing on the wrong age groups, or the
wrong mediating factors. Only data with sufficient variation both historically and developmentally can answer
foundational questions about diminishing gender differences in alcohol-related outcomes. Drawing from a
lifecourse perspective, the present project will leverage 47 longitudinal cohorts collected through the Monitoring
the Future (MTF) project, from 1976 through 2022, and apply rigorous age-period-cohort growth curve modeling
to illuminate: when in historical time and during what developmental periods from ages 18 to 45 gender patterns
have been converging; how gender patterns are converging (i.e. because women are increasing, men are
decreasing, or both), and why gender patterns are converging. To determine why we will examine an
unprecedented array of potential mediating factors including sociological trends in role transitions (marriage,
parenthood, education, residential independence, and employment), gender and societal attitudes, and
psychological factors (drinking attitudes and reasons, future intentions for partnership and parenthood, parenting
and marriage satisfaction). We will employ rigorous age-period-cohort growth models to accomplish three aims:
(1) Test when in historical time and at what developmental age gender patterns in alcohol consumption, binge
drinking, and alcohol use disorder symptoms are converging or have converged; (2) Forecast future public health
burden of alcohol consumption, binge drinking, and alcohol use disorder symptoms and (3) Analyze sociological,
psychological, and attitudinal factors as potential mediators of gender convergences across historical time and
developmental age. Mediation will be estimated with novel methods developed for epidemiological applications
that overcome problematic assumptions of previous approaches. MTF data have been a key source of
information on substance use for more than four decades; studies have not to date been used to examine age-
period-cohort trends...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10158013
- **Project number:** 5R01AA026861-04
- **Recipient organization:** COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES
- **Principal Investigator:** Justin O Jager
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2021
- **Award amount:** $383,275
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2018-08-01 → 2023-04-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10158013

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10158013, Age, period, and cohort effects on gender differences in alcohol use and alcohol use disorders in 47 national, longitudinally-followed cohorts (5R01AA026861-04). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10158013. Licensed CC0.

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