# Quantification of HIV burden and the biomedical, structural, and behavioral factors influencing HIV/AIDS among children and young adolescents

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · 2021 · $696,696

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children and adolescents, and it is well recognized
that HIV care and treatment among children (birth to 9 years) and young adolescents (10-14 years) lags behind
that of adults, leading to numerous calls to action. Despite a global consensus toward eliminating new HIV
infections in these age groups, assessing progress against targets is impeded, as current estimates do not
include substantial amounts of locally-available data. Additionally, new HIV infections in young adolescents have
not been quantified. The global HIV burden in these age groups is currently estimated by two groups: the Global
Burden of Disease (GBD) study and UNAIDS, both of which currently assume no new HIV infections for those
under 15. Both groups use the Spectrum child model, which relies largely on estimated HIV prevalence among
adult women, treatment for prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and other assumptions to estimate the
HIV burden among children and young adolescents. One of the assumptions is that new HIV infections among
those under 15 come from only one source – mother-to-child transmission – assuming no sexual activity and
zero HIV incidence in young adolescents. In addition to behavioral factors, evidence shows that the risk of HIV
transmission is influenced by biomedical factors (e.g., HIV testing rates, antiretroviral therapy coverage) and
structural factors (e.g., national wealth, access to education, health care quality and access). However, there
has been no systematic study of the impact of these factors on the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. Given the
complexity of the epidemic and the interplay of contributing factors, additional data and analyses are needed to
understand the relative impact of these factors. Developing methods to triangulate newly acquired data sources
is crucial to enhancing understanding of the drivers of the epidemic, and to generating more robust HIV burden
estimates for children and adolescents. Accordingly, the goal of this study is to address the limitations of existing
methods by triangulating empirical data sources to produce more accurate and comprehensive estimates of
pediatric HIV burden, including an understanding of how biomedical, behavioral, and structural factors impact
the burden among children and adolescents. Our proposal advances beyond existing work by providing the first-
ever estimates of new HIV infections among young adolescents, and by incorporating these results into an
interactive visualization platform to help key stakeholders understand the current and projected future burden of
HIV/AIDS among children and adolescents under different scenarios. This project is comprised of four Specific
Aims: (1) Incorporate currently unused data sources to estimate mother-to-child transmission and HIV burden
among children (0-9 years); (2) Estimate new infections among young adolescents (10-14 years); (3) Quantify
the impact of...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10159147
- **Project number:** 1R01AI152721-01A1
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
- **Principal Investigator:** Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2021
- **Award amount:** $696,696
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2021-03-05 → 2026-02-28

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10159147

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10159147, Quantification of HIV burden and the biomedical, structural, and behavioral factors influencing HIV/AIDS among children and young adolescents (1R01AI152721-01A1). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10159147. Licensed CC0.

---

*[NIH grants dataset](/datasets/nih-grants) · CC0 1.0*