Developing Models to Identify Veterans with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Predict Progression

NIH RePORTER · VA · I21 · · view on reporter.nih.gov ↗

Abstract

Anticipated Impacts on Veterans Health Care: This proposal will use natural language processing (NLP) methods and machine learning approaches to provide and compare predictive models of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) among Veterans. Proposed analyses will also examine racial/ethnic differences in NAFLD diagnosis, treatment, and outcomes with the goal of identify patient groups at highest risk of progression to liver cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications. The long-term goal of this research, which this pilot study will facilitate, is the development and effective targeting of integrated multidisciplinary treatment algorithms alongside simple, culturally appropriate, and cost-effective interventions to curb the epidemic of NAFLD and its complications among Veterans. Background: NAFLD is a significant and growing health problem closely associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, and dyslipidemia. In the VA, NAFLD prevalence has been estimated as high as 46%. The prevalence of NAFLD varies significantly depending on the population studied and on the tests used. In the Dallas Heart Study, it was estimated that over 30% of patients had NAFLD by MR spectroscopy. Importantly, investigators found that the highest prevalence of NAFLD occurred among Hispanics (58%), and those with T2DM (over 70%). Hispanic populations have higher incidence of NAFLD and potentially higher rates of progression to advanced fibrosis, compared to non- Hispanic White (NHW) patients. Current therapy aims to optimize both cardiovascular and liver-related risk factors (i.e. T2DM, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, obesity, smoking etc.). Lifestyle changes driven by dietary intervention and exercise are the first line of therapy to induce and maintain weight loss, reducing fat mass, hyperinsulinemia and insulin resistance, thus decreasing lipotoxic liver damage and multisystem metabolic consequences. The VA NAFLD Clinic provides Intensive Weight Loss that includes nutrition, exercise, behavioral, VA approved pharmaceuticals (e.g., Bupropion/Naltrex, Lorcascerin) and bariatric surgery. Hence it is important to identify patients that are at high risk of progression to the poor outcomes associated with advanced NAFLD and provide treatments available at VA NAFLD Clinics. Objectives: In this 1-year pilot, we propose using the VA NAFLD Team curated cohort (n=61,900) of Veterans from the national Veteran Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI) system who have received liver biopsies. The dataset will be augmented to include medical records 8-years prior and 1- year post biopsy. We will use clustering and machine learning predictive analytic approaches to identify patients with higher risk of developing cirrhosis, cirrhosis-related complications, and cardiovascular events with a focused analysis on racial and ethnicity disparities. Methods: The machine learning methodology of convolutional neural networks and random forests will be u...

Key facts

NIH application ID
10177897
Project number
5I21HX002700-02
Recipient
RALPH H JOHNSON VA MEDICAL CENTER
Principal Investigator
Lewis James Frey
Activity code
I21
Funding institute
VA
Fiscal year
2020
Award amount
Award type
5
Project period
2019-04-01 → 2020-09-30