# Using a Novel Comprehensive Linked Dataset to Determine Early Predictors of Opioid Overdose

> **NIH NIH R01** · BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL · 2021 · $511,306

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
To address more than a quadrupling of death rates from opioid overdose between 2000 and 2015, federal and
state agencies have promoted clinician education and guidelines to reduce risky prescribing. Previous
research has identified prescription patterns associated with elevated risk of opioid overdose, yet the
relationship between patient and environmental factors, prescription use/misuse trajectories, and overdose
likelihood remains largely unknown. This proposal, submitted in response to PAR-16-234 (Accelerating the
Pace of Drug Abuse Research Using Existing Data), will develop comprehensive models for assessing opioid
overdose risk, filling critical gaps in understanding of how prescription opioid use/misuse changes over time,
how such changes affect overdose risk, which patients are most vulnerable to risky patterns, and what role
household- and community-level prescription risk plays in overdose. The specific aims are:
1. Model effects of patient demographic and clinical characteristics and patient prescription patterns and their
interactions on opioid-involved overdose (fatal or nonfatal).
2. Determine the effect of household-level prescription availability on opioid overdose.
3. Determine the effect of community-level prescription availability on opioid overdose.
A key strength of our study is our novel linked dataset: the Oregon Comprehensive Opioid Risk Registry
(CORR), which links prescription and clinical history across payers with diverse sources of overdose data,
including data from the Oregon Prescription Drug Monitoring Program, Medicaid Claims, Vital Records, and
Hospital Discharge registry, as well as All Payer/All Claims and Emergency Medical Services data. Our study
will determine the odds of opioid-related overdose based on interactions of patient demographics,
diagnoses/comorbidities, initial opioid prescriptions, household prescription risk levels, and community
prescription risk levels. The study will use models to examine how risk builds over time and identify prescription
patterns that portend increased risk at an early stage. Innovation: Our study creates a novel linked dataset and
applies a complex analytic approach to radically expand understanding of patients' individual risk
environments. Significance: This study will inform clinical practice by generating new knowledge that can help
identify the most at-risk patients and modify opioid prescribing decisions regarding them. Impact: Hierarchical
models which combine individuals' prescription trajectories and clinical histories with household-level and
community-level risk factors can be extended to other complex diseases in which the adverse outcomes occur
as a result of effects acting at different levels.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10246460
- **Project number:** 5R01DA044167-04
- **Recipient organization:** BRIGHAM AND WOMEN'S HOSPITAL
- **Principal Investigator:** Scott Gordon Weiner
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2021
- **Award amount:** $511,306
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2018-09-30 → 2023-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10246460

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10246460, Using a Novel Comprehensive Linked Dataset to Determine Early Predictors of Opioid Overdose (5R01DA044167-04). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10246460. Licensed CC0.

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