# An Economic and Public Health Analysis of the Evolving Nicotine Marketplace

> **NIH NIH P01** · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · 2021 · $101,509

## Abstract

SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
Patterns of tobacco use have changed dramatically since product development and marketing has expanded
into nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and more recently heated tobacco products (HTPs). NVPs are being
used by many adult smokers who continue to smoke cigarettes, and by those who have transitioned off of
cigarettes. NVPs are also increasingly being taken up by youth and young adults in ways that may encourage
future cigarette smoking or displace smoking. The net impact of NVPs and other emerging nicotine products
and the policies that have been implemented by governments to regulate them and ultimately on population
health are difficult to predict, which is why modelling potential downstream impacts is useful. The three aims of
this project are: 1) to develop economic models of industry behavior to better understand the impact of industry
reactions to tobacco control policies; 2) to develop a framework that not only incorporates cigarettes and NVP
use, but other new and emerging products, such as HTPs; and 3) to develop simulation models for seven
countries with different regulatory frameworks and product use patterns for NVP and emerging nicotine
products. For Aim 1 we will develop economic models of industry reactions to tobacco control policies that
consider the role of traditional cigarette companies versus non-cigarette companies to better understand the
impact of market structure, product pricing, and marketing and product development. For Aim 2 we will expand
our existing model developed in the current P01 to forecast the impact of NVPs on smoking and health
outcomes to now include other emerging nicotine products, including HTPs. We will apply this framework to
understand the impact of specific cigarette-oriented, NVP-oriented and HTP-oriented policies, individually and
their combination. The framework will also address the interaction between industry behavior, policies, and
health outcomes. For Aim 3, the previously developed US, Canada and England models will be updated and
extended to consider HTPs and a broader set of policies. New country specific models will also be developed
for Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand. Our overarching goal of the proposed research is to show the
likely population health impacts of new tobacco products and the effect of new supply-oriented product
regulations and the more traditional tobacco control demand-reduction policies on tobacco use patterns.
Extensive sensitivity analysis will be conducted to identify the parameters that need to be better understood in
order to forecast population health impacts and to evaluate the plausible range of outcomes associated with
specific policies and regulations.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10270166
- **Project number:** 2P01CA200512-06
- **Recipient organization:** MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA
- **Principal Investigator:** David Theodore Levy
- **Activity code:** P01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2021
- **Award amount:** $101,509
- **Award type:** 2
- **Project period:** 2016-04-19 → 2026-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10270166

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10270166, An Economic and Public Health Analysis of the Evolving Nicotine Marketplace (2P01CA200512-06). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10270166. Licensed CC0.

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