# Behavioral Economics of Reduced-Nicotine Cigarettes: Interaction of Expectancy and Nicotine Dose Reduction

> **NIH NIH R03** · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · 2021 · $122,813

## Abstract

The 2009 Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act gave the FDA authority to reduce public health
harms of tobacco products. A key proposal is mandating nicotine reduction in cigarettes. It is hypothesized that
reducing nicotine content will mitigate the overwhelming morbidity associated with smoking by decreasing
smoking initiation and increasing cessation rates among established smokers. Clinical trials have provided
promising support by demonstrating reductions in toxicant exposure and nicotine dependence for individuals
randomized to reduced-nicotine cigarette conditions. Experimental work on reduced-nicotine cigarette
pharmacodynamics has almost exclusively used blinded conditions, precluding systematic evaluation of how
expectations about reduced-nicotine cigarettes may impact behavioral and subjective response. Given that
real-world settings will involve unblinded products, information about expectancies is essential to inform how
reduced-nicotine products will be perceived in future real-world markets. The proposed human laboratory study
will systematically determine the independent and interactive effects of expectancy and nicotine dose on
reinforcing (behavioral economic demand), subjective, and topography outcomes. Participants (10
men/women) in the proposed study will complete 4 experimental sessions in which expectancy (labeling of
“average” nicotine versus “very low” nicotine) and nicotine dose (15.8 mg/g versus 0.4 mg/g) are manipulated
as within-subject variables. Participants will smoke one study cigarette of these combinations at the start of
each session and complete craving, mood, withdrawal, and subjective drug effect measures before and after
smoking. Smoking topography will also be collected during cigarette administration to determine if expectancy
and dose impact how one smokes – one way that cognitive or pharmacological effects can impact smoking
behavior. Demand will be evaluated with an incentivized demand task using experienced outcomes to improve
experimental rigor. Behavioral economic demand analyses will differentiate between effects attributable to
consumption of a good at no or little cost (“demand intensity”) and consumption following increases in cost
(“demand elasticity”). We hypothesize lower demand, subjective effects, and puff volume for “very low” labels
and low nicotine dose cigarettes, with the lowest demand when in combination. This Behavioral Science Track
Award for Rapid Transition (B/Start) R03 will provide critical information to the FDA on the reinforcing effects of
smoking due to not only nicotine content, but nicotine expectancy – a factor that has received virtually no
attention in nicotine reduction research. Identifying the specific behavioral mechanisms impacted by these
factors is relevant as each have very different public health implications (e.g., impacts specific to demand
intensity but not demand elasticity indicate that policy targeting cost changes would have minimal impact).
...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10272547
- **Project number:** 1R03DA054098-01
- **Recipient organization:** JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Justin Charles Strickland
- **Activity code:** R03 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2021
- **Award amount:** $122,813
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2021-07-01 → 2023-06-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10272547

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10272547, Behavioral Economics of Reduced-Nicotine Cigarettes: Interaction of Expectancy and Nicotine Dose Reduction (1R03DA054098-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10272547. Licensed CC0.

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