# A Natural Experiment Evaluating the Effect of a Minimum Wage Increase on Obesity and Diet-Related Outcome

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT STORRS · 2020 · $505,547

## Abstract

Minimum wage laws are increasingly being recognized as a possible policy lever for improving
population health and health equity, with the potential for implementation at the local, state, and national levels.
On June 30, 2017, Minneapolis, Minnesota became the 40th local jurisdiction to set the minimum wage above
the state level. The city will incrementally increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour by July 1, 2022 for all
firms with greater than 100 employees; minimum wage in smaller firms will increase to $13.50 during this time
period. The ordinance is expected to increase wages among the 71,000 workers likely to be affected, who are
disproportionately non-Hispanic black and Hispanic workers. The available evidence suggests that minimum
wage laws may be associated with a range of health outcomes. This includes obesity, as increasing wages can
improve food security and reduce cost constraints for purchasing healthier foods. However, existing studies
linking wages and weight have design weaknesses that limit causal inference and the ability to identify causal
mechanisms. This study, which has a prospective quasi-experimental design with a strong counterfactual
condition, is the next step for testing whether and how an increase in minimum wage results in improved
obesity-related outcomes among low-wage workers. Throughout the 4.5-year implementation of the
Minneapolis minimum wage ordinance, we will follow a cohort of low-wage workers (those earning less than
$10 an hour at baseline) in a natural experiment, using a difference-in-difference design to compare a panel of
obesity-related measures in a cohort of low-wage workers in Minneapolis (n = 400) and similar workers in a
matched control community (n = 400), Raleigh, NC. The control city has a statewide preemption law which
prohibits local minimum wage increases. Measures for all individuals will be collected at baseline (T0) and after
5 incremental wage increases (T1-T5) through June 2022. The study aims to test the difference in change in
body mass index (BMI, the primary outcome) between individuals in the two conditions, as assessed by
anthropometric height-weight measurements. We will also test the difference in change in the two conditions
for a range of nutrition-related outcomes, including purchases of healthier and less healthy foods (measured by
food purchase receipts), food insecurity (measured by a 6-item USDA measure), and participation in
government food assistance programs (measured by participant survey). Finally, we will test other behavioral
and psychosocial mechanisms through which wages might affect obesity, and explore spending changes in
household health-related expenses over time. Minimum wage laws are a potential upstream approach to
prevent obesity, and these policies may be uniquely positioned to reduce health disparities because they
intervene on a population (lower-income, high racial/ethnic minority) at the highest risk for poor health. This
natural experiment offers...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10306872
- **Project number:** 7R01DK118664-04
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT STORRS
- **Principal Investigator:** Caitlin Eicher Caspi
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $505,547
- **Award type:** 7
- **Project period:** 2020-08-23 → 2023-03-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10306872

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10306872, A Natural Experiment Evaluating the Effect of a Minimum Wage Increase on Obesity and Diet-Related Outcome (7R01DK118664-04). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10306872. Licensed CC0.

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