# Initial effects of program elimination on school enrollment and child health outcomes

> **NIH NIH R21** · UNIV OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK · 2022 · $199,812

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY
We study the effects of the recent and sudden rollback of the Mexican conditional cash transfer
Prospera on school enrollment and child health outcomes. Conditional cash transfer (CCT)
programs link monetary transfers to poor households to children’s education and health and
were first pioneered in Mexico and Brazil two decades ago, now operating in more than 60
mostly developing countries (ibarraran et al. 2017). Prospera’s (previously named
Progresa/Oportunidades) initial randomized evaluation and follow up studies demonstrated
significant and important improvements on children’s education and health outcomes, as well as
in household economic outcomes, summarized in (Parker and Todd, 2017). These studies
contributed to both a scale up within Mexico and the spread of its key features to new programs
around the world. The sudden rollback of Prospera in early 2019 by President Lopez Obrador
provides a unique natural experiment to study whether the positive effects on children of this
pioneering and emulated around the world program will be sustained after this sudden change
in their households’ economic situations. This project will provide evidence on the initial effects
of the program elimination on school enrollment and child health outcomes including infant
mortality, consultations, and hospitalizations. Aim 1 studies the impact of the rollback on school
enrollment of children and youth between the ages of 6 and 18 in the year following rollback.
Aim 2 estimates the impacts of the rollback on infant mortality and on health consultations and
hospitalizations in the year following rollback. The study will provide evidence on the initial
effects of eliminating an income transfer program to the population in extreme poverty in a
developing country. It will provide some of the first evidence on the sustainability of child
education and health gains when a conditional cash transfer program ends, and contribute to
the new and critical literature on whether program impacts persist after income transfers ends.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10355090
- **Project number:** 1R21HD107407-01
- **Recipient organization:** UNIV OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK
- **Principal Investigator:** Susan W Parker
- **Activity code:** R21 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2022
- **Award amount:** $199,812
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2022-05-18 → 2024-04-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10355090

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10355090, Initial effects of program elimination on school enrollment and child health outcomes (1R21HD107407-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-25 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10355090. Licensed CC0.

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