# Relationship between lawful handgun ownership and risk of homicide victimization in the home

> **NIH NIH R01** · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · 2021 · $1,186,914

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
In the United States, personal protection is the leading motivation for purchasing and owning firearms,
especially handguns. However, available evidence mostly suggests that residents of homes with guns
are more—not less—likely to die from homicide. A key limitation of the evidence base is that individual-
level studies of the relationship between firearm access and lethal assaults have been relatively small in
scale, permitting estimation only of average population-wide effects. Such estimates may miss protective
effects (or disproportionately high risks) among certain subgroups—women, for example, or people living
in dangerous neighborhoods. The goal of this study is to explore the relationship between living in a
home with lawfully-owned handguns and the risk of dying by homicide—overall, and for a variety of
distinct subgroups. These analyses are made feasible by a unique, recently-constructed cohort of 28.6
million adults residents of California who are followed for up to 12.2 years. The cohort consists of a mix
of handgun owners, nonowners who live with owners, and nonowners who live in homes without
handguns. We observe individual-level, time-varying information on cohort members’ handgun
purchasing history (back to 1985), cause-specific mortality, and demographic characteristics; household
identifiers permit linkage of cohabitating cohort members. The study will focus on homicides occurring in
and around the victim’s home. We will begin by comparing rates of homicide victimization in homes with
and without handguns. Next, we will repeat this analysis separately for men and women; for people of
different age groups and race and ethnic groups; for household members who own handguns
(predominantly men), and those who don’t own but reside with owners (predominantly women); and for
people living in relatively dangerous and relatively safe neighborhoods. We will also assess how risks of
different types of homicide (e.g., homicides perpetrated by family members vs by strangers) vary
between homes with and without handguns. All of these associations will be estimated by fitting
extended Cox proportional hazards models that adjust for age, sex, race and ethnic group, and long-gun
ownership; the models will allow baseline hazards to vary according to neighborhood. This is the first
cohort study to investigate the relationship between household exposure to firearms and risks of
homicide. Study results will provide policymakers, law enforcement, public health practitioners, and—
most importantly—handgun owners and their cohabitants with a more complete and accurate accounting
of the risks and benefits of living in a home with handgun. The findings will also inform firearm violence
prevention initiatives: more specific information on who is at especially high risk of homicide can be used
to target interventions and tailor public health education and messaging.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10400411
- **Project number:** 1R01AG076382-01
- **Recipient organization:** STANFORD UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** DAVID M STUDDERT
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2021
- **Award amount:** $1,186,914
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2021-09-17 → 2025-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10400411

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10400411, Relationship between lawful handgun ownership and risk of homicide victimization in the home (1R01AG076382-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-25 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10400411. Licensed CC0.

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