# Modeling the influence of temperature on the evolution of vector-virus interactions

> **NIH NIH R01** · WADSWORTH CENTER · 2022 · $482,931

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY
Warmer temperatures have been associated with increased virus transmission and emergence of novel
pathogens and vectors in new locations. Temperature is well documented to have a significant effect on viral
fitness and replication, which is particularly relevant in ectothermic vectors of enzootic viruses such as
mosquitoes. Temperature also impacts numerous aspects of invertebrate biology and therefore is a critical
factor influencing the transmission potential of vector populations. Studies to date which aim to model
environmental effects on population level viral dynamics assume static biological systems. Given the strong
effects of temperature on viral replication rates (and consequently evolutionary rates), the variability of vector
species and population responses to temperature, and the documented role of interactions among viral
genotype and environment in governing transmission, this assumption is flawed. This represents a clear gap in
our understanding of pathogen transmission theory and a barrier to developing accurate predictive models.
West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus, Flaviviridae) is the most prevalent arbovirus in the U.S. and the ideal
candidate for modeling how temperature and viral genotype interact to influence transmission and evolution of
arboviruses in dynamic vector populations. There is large variability in prevalence in mosquitoes over both fine
and broad temporal and geographic scales, and this variability has been well-documented in the U.S. Variation
in temperature and viral genotypes have also been documented over similar scales. We will utilize novel
laboratory data to refine predictions of arbovirus transmission under various evolutionary and climate
scenarios, and ultimately to create more informed predictive models that should have broader implications for
vector-borne pathogens.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10419199
- **Project number:** 1R01AI168097-01
- **Recipient organization:** WADSWORTH CENTER
- **Principal Investigator:** Alexander Timothy Ciota
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2022
- **Award amount:** $482,931
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2022-02-03 → 2027-01-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10419199

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10419199, Modeling the influence of temperature on the evolution of vector-virus interactions (1R01AI168097-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10419199. Licensed CC0.

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