Patterns and predictors of viral suppression: A Big Data approach

NIH RePORTER · NIH · R01 · $710,090 · view on reporter.nih.gov ↗

Abstract

Abstract Viral suppression is the final stage of the HIV treatment cascade, which serves as the framework for UNAIDS’ 90-90-90 goals. Sustained viral suppression is one of four strategic areas of the “Ending the HIV Epidemic (EtHE): A Plan for America” federal campaign, launched in February 2019, which aims for the reduction of new HIV infections in the United States (US) by 75% and 90% by 2025 and 2030, respectively. The EtHE campaign focuses on 48 US counties and 7 states, including South Carolina (SC). Given the importance of viral suppression in ending the US HIV epidemic, an optimal predictive model of viral status can help clinicians identify those at risk of poor viral control and inform clinical improvements in HIV treatment and care. Various indicators to characterize the longitudinal virologic outcomes have been proposed in the literature such as sustained viral suppression, viral rebound, low-level viraemia (LLV), persistent LLV, and virologic blips. However, some critical gaps still exist in our efforts to develop an optimal predictive model of viral suppression. These gaps include the use of limited indicators of virologic outcomes, limited duration of follow-up, limited data sources, lack of consideration of structural and socioenvironmental data, small or unrepresentative samples of people living with HIV (PLWH), and limited efforts to translate research findings into service-ready tools for clinical use. With NIH support (R01AI127203) since 2017, we have utilized a Big Data approach to examine treatment gaps (e.g., missed opportunities for diagnosis and linkage to care) among a statewide cohort of PLWH in SC. This ongoing research extracted longitudinal electronic health records data from six state agencies and then linked the patient-level data with county-level data (e.g., socioeconomic indicators, number of health care professionals, hospitals, and health care facilities) from multiple publicly available data sources. The resultant integrated database has enabled us to successfully “track” 11,470 patients who were diagnosed with HIV from 2005 to 2016 in SC and identify the gaps in HIV treatment linkage and retention. Based on the experience and accomplishment of the R01AI127203, we submit this application to examine the longitudinal dynamic pattern of viral suppression, develop optimal predictive models of various viral suppression indicators, and translate the models to service-ready tools for clinical use. In the proposed research, we will: 1) continue to “follow” our cohort for another five years (and also expand the cohort by adding PLWH diagnosed between 2016-2020); 2) expand our database to include additional data on critical predictors of viral suppression (e.g., treatment and laboratory data, alcohol and substance use data) from two newly participating statewide data sources; 3) employ artificial intelligence (AI)-based modeling to understand the dynamic viral load patterns and their predictors; and 4) develop and pilot...

Key facts

NIH application ID
10425449
Project number
5R01AI164947-02
Recipient
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA AT COLUMBIA
Principal Investigator
Bankole Olatosi
Activity code
R01
Funding institute
NIH
Fiscal year
2022
Award amount
$710,090
Award type
5
Project period
2021-06-09 → 2026-05-31