# Arbovirus Prediction and Mitigation in the Indo-Pacific

> **NIH NIH K23** · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · 2022 · $193,320

## Abstract

Project Summary / Abstract
Dengue, a potentially life-threatening disease, has increased 30-fold in the last 50 years. In Indonesia, 1 in 3
children have had a dengue infection by 5 years old. Islands in the Indo-Pacific are highly vulnerable to climate
change and water insecurity, two key drivers of arbovirus spread. Predicting and mitigating arbovirus
transmission in the Indo-Pacific is critical to addressing the increasing risk of arboviruses in the U.S. In the next
several decades, half the U.S. may have habitat suitable for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, mosquitos
which spread dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever viruses.
Revitalizing Informal Settlements and their Environments (RISE) is a cluster randomized control trial evaluating
the benefits of upgrading local water infrastructure in urban slums in Indonesia and Fiji. The RISE intervention
is a prototype for future slum upgrading to address climate change and water insecurity throughout the Indo-
Pacific. Although the World Health Organization recommends permanent environmental modification as an
arbovirus control strategy, this has never before been rigorously tested. RISE provides an important
opportunity to evaluate whether this model decreases or inadvertently increases arbovirus transmission.
In addition to evaluating a new paradigm for mitigating arbovirus transmission, RISE is an ideal platform to
assess gaps in knowledge about environmental drivers of arbovirus transmission. My hypothesis is that
modifiable environmental conditions drive arbovirus transmission in these communities. To test this hypothesis,
I will leverage the RISE platform to study arbovirus risk factors in this region and evaluate the impact of
permanent environmental modification on arbovirus transmission in urban slums. I will also create a
mathematical model to simulate arbovirus transmission in this region under a range of climate change and
intervention scenarios.
I have developed a customized career development plan that aligns with my proposed research. It incorporates
both formal and informal training under the mentorship of Drs. LaBeaud and Luby. This training plan draws
upon my existing expertise in global health, tropical medicine, and epidemiology; it will enhance my expertise
in laboratory diagnostics, geospatial analysis, and mathematical modeling. The planned didactics and technical
training included here will provide the foundation necessary to achieve my goal of becoming an academic
physician focused on mitigating the spread of infectious diseases in the era of climate change.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10429130
- **Project number:** 1K23AI168581-01
- **Recipient organization:** STANFORD UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Joelle Ivy Rosser
- **Activity code:** K23 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2022
- **Award amount:** $193,320
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2022-06-01 → 2027-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10429130

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10429130, Arbovirus Prediction and Mitigation in the Indo-Pacific (1K23AI168581-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10429130. Licensed CC0.

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