# Measuring Migraine Attack Risks

> **NIH NIH R01** · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · 2022 · $293,125

## Abstract

Project Summary
Millions of Americans suffer from migraine headache attacks, but the causes of these individual attacks are not
known. While many factors, or “triggers”, have been thought to cause migraines (e.g., certain foods, weather,
stress), the influence of these diverse variables is difficult to measure or quantify. Currently, health care
providers, individual migraine sufferers, and researchers are unsure which factors actually are associated with
migraine and what can be done to reduce the risk of migraine for any individual. Focusing on the variability in
these triggers and quantifying this variability using information theory allows the potential influence of all
triggers to be measured on the same scale. This project will create a trigger surprise model that allows all
types of migraine triggers to be accurately measured for use in predicting risk of migraine attacks. In Aim 1, a
longitudinal cohort study design will be used to observe N = 200 individuals with migraine to examine the
natural variability in migraine activity and many common migraine triggers. In Aim 2, a measurement system
will be created that utilizes the within-person probability distribution for each trigger to estimate a daily risk
score for a migraine attack. This measurement system will be immediately valuable in reducing the current
confusion surrounding migraine triggers, could be used in forecasting future attacks, and would be crucial to
the further study of the biological mechanisms underlying the initiation of a migraine attack.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10433918
- **Project number:** 5R01NS113823-04
- **Recipient organization:** MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL
- **Principal Investigator:** Dana Turner
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2022
- **Award amount:** $293,125
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2019-09-15 → 2024-06-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10433918

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10433918, Measuring Migraine Attack Risks (5R01NS113823-04). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10433918. Licensed CC0.

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