# Developing a Predictive Model of the Outcomes of Adenotonsillectomy for Pediatric Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome

> **NIH NIH K23** · OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY · 2021 · $46,332

## Abstract

Project Summary/Abstract
Recent evidence has demonstrated that up to 30% of children undergoing adenotonsillectomy (AT) for
pediatric obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) will have significant residual disease. Although most
patients will experience some benefit from AT, the ability to reliably predict the outcome of AT for any individual
patient has not been demonstrated.
The candidate's long-term goal is to become a leading expert in developing and critically evaluating treatments
for pediatric OSAS. To help achieve this goal, the candidate's specific training objectives for this career
development award include 1) obtaining advanced biostatistics and outcomes research training, 2) gaining
experience in developing and validating a predictive model of surgical outcomes, and 3) developing further
clinical expertise in the diagnosis and treatment of pediatric OSAS. These training objectives will be achieved
by pursuing advanced biostatistical coursework and training through the Oregon Clinical and Translational
Research Institute (OCTRI) Scholars Program as well as clinical and research collaboration with the OHSU
Sleep Disorders Program.
The overall research objective of this proposal is to develop a comprehensive predictive model for the
outcomes of AT for OSAS that includes anatomic and dynamic functional risk factors determined by sleep
endoscopy. It is our central hypothesis that a composite predictive model that includes sleep endoscopy
findings will accurately predict the outcome of AT and allow estimation of the likelihood of surgical success.
The specific aims of this study are to 1) determine the associations between a validated sleep endoscopy
rating scale and post AT outcomes, and 2) develop and validate a composite predictive model of the outcomes
of AT incorporating sleep endoscopy ratings and other baseline factors. These aims will be achieved through a
prospective cohort study of children aged 2-18 years who are undergoing AT for a diagnosis OSAS. Other
inclusion criteria will include risk factors predisposing to residual OSAS after AT: obesity, severe preoperative
OSAS, African American race, and age greater than 7 years. Patients will undergo sleep endoscopy prior to
AT. Outcome measures include apnea-hypopnea index, generic and OSAS-specific quality of life, and
validated caregiver ratings of executive function. A composite predictive model using presence of post-AT
OSAS as the primary outcome variable will be developed and validated. Such a model will allow more accurate
and reliable prognostication of AT outcomes and will help to inform the need for postoperative follow-up and
possibly suggest strategies for further intervention.
6

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10438448
- **Project number:** 3K23HL127132-05S1
- **Recipient organization:** OREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Derek J Lam
- **Activity code:** K23 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2021
- **Award amount:** $46,332
- **Award type:** 3
- **Project period:** 2017-01-01 → 2022-01-09

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10438448

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10438448, Developing a Predictive Model of the Outcomes of Adenotonsillectomy for Pediatric Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (3K23HL127132-05S1). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10438448. Licensed CC0.

---

*[NIH grants dataset](/datasets/nih-grants) · CC0 1.0*