# Improving the Accuracy, Utility, and Equity of Risk Assessment in the Juvenile Justice System: A Mixed-Method Study

> **NIH NIH R21** · UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN · 2022 · $190,665

## Abstract

Project Summary
Preventing adolescent delinquency, especially engagement in violence perpetration, is a critical public health aim. Data-
driven risk assessments are the dominant paradigm for (a) prioritizing need and (b) selecting which clinical services are
needed for the approximate 2 million adolescents involved with the juvenile justice system annually. Ultimately, these
data analytic tools generate a “risk score” that guide referrals for behavioral and mental health services. Despite their
widespread use, however, critical limitations for these structured risk assessments persist. These include (a) measuring
dynamic processes decontextualized from adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), (b) questionable validity in assessing
risk in diverse adolescent populations, and (c) a narrow focus on violent behavior, with little consideration of critical
mental health concerns (e.g., emotional distress, substance) as outcomes. Addressing these limitations is the answer to
laying the foundation for a more trauma-informed, culturally-competent, and clinically useful risk assessment process to
emerge for vulnerable adolescents involved in the juvenile justice system.
The proposed study seeks to address these aims via a novel, mixed method research approach. In the first phase of the
study, we will conduct qualitative interviews to determine how adolescents and caregivers involved with the juvenile
justice system perceive the pathways for risk and resilience for overarching behavioral and emotional health. An emphasis
of these interviews is to understand (a) what ACEs are most salient to juvenile justice-involved adolescents’ well-being,
(b) which mechanisms explain the link between ACEs and mental health, and (c) who is most sensitive to ACEs. For the
second study aim, we will conduct secondary data analyses to determine which risks and strengths assessed in current risk
assessments mediate and/or moderate the relation between trauma-exposure and maladaptive outcomes and how well
these risks and strengths classify individuals who are more likely to engage in violence perpetration, substance use, and/or
experience emotional distress in the future. Novel analytic strategies are used to examine how robust these models are
across intersecting identities. The third aim seeks to synthetize the findings from our two methodological paradigms to
examine how community-based, emic perspectives on juvenile risk converge and diverge with validated facets of a
scientific, etic model of risk currently utilized by the juvenile justice system. Collective findings will serve as the
foundation for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) that tests if as assessment protocol based on the indices identified in
our study leads to a more precise and engaging assessment and referral process for juvenile justice-involved adolescents,
as well as prospective longitudinal research that seeks to quantify findings unique to our qualitative study.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10454278
- **Project number:** 5R21HD103950-02
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN
- **Principal Investigator:** Joseph R Cohen
- **Activity code:** R21 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2022
- **Award amount:** $190,665
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2021-07-20 → 2024-06-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10454278

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10454278, Improving the Accuracy, Utility, and Equity of Risk Assessment in the Juvenile Justice System: A Mixed-Method Study (5R21HD103950-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-27 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10454278. Licensed CC0.

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