# Implicit Bias in the Evidence: An Evaluation of Female-Predominant Disease

> **NIH NIH R01** · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · 2022 · $531,792

## Abstract

This research explores the use of heuristics in diagnostic decision making for conditions that do not have
definitive diagnostic tests and rely on a set of diagnostic criteria. Because clinicians are Bayesian by nature,
cognitive heuristics are used to estimate the probability of a given condition based on the representativeness of
that case among “the average” in diagnostic decision making. Over time, reliance on these shortcuts influences
how patients are diagnosed, and in turn, these patients add to the growing evidence base. This may lead to a
multi-state confirmation bias in the practice of evidence-based medicine. Our first step to evaluate this complex
cycle is to question how the evidence and deviations from the norm influence what diagnosis a clinician gives.
We ask: Does the diagnosis a patient receives vary when all that differs is their sex, gender, or race? Our initial
pilot shows that clinicians make more diagnostic errors when presented with patients of sex/gender/race that is
less common, despite identical clinical signs and symptoms of lupus. We will extend on our experimental
approach evaluating implicit bias in the diagnosis of lupus, which builds off of research on discrimination in
hiring. This work specifically asks whether when the disease presents the same, does a patient deviating from
the “norm” based on the evidence, influence the diagnosis? We will consider additional female-predominant
diseases and determine whether a physician's diagnosis is influenced by a patient's sex/gender/race holding
everything else constant. First, we will conduct a national internet-based randomized experiment among
specialists to assess the role of sex/gender/race in the clinical workup and its contribution to observed
heterogeneity and disparities. Second, we will conduct additional randomized experiments in primary care to
determine how sex/gender/race influences their clinical workup and referral patterns. Third, we will use mixed
methods to characterize and improve our understanding of how clinicians approach diagnostic questions, and
identify non-biological, potentially modifiable factors contributing to health disparities. We will conduct focus
groups with providers using experimental results as discussion prompts to contextualize findings and inform
strategies to address this type of multi-state confirmation bias. This innovative work adapts a novel method by
combining methods from sociology, experimental design, and behavioral science. Our findings will increase
clinicians' awareness of how cognitive biases that may lead to medical errors, and will demonstrate how an
incomplete evidence base may propagate health disparities leading to delayed diagnosis, worsening disease,
and irreversible damage.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10468199
- **Project number:** 5R01AI154533-03
- **Recipient organization:** STANFORD UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Julia F Simard
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2022
- **Award amount:** $531,792
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2020-09-22 → 2024-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10468199

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10468199, Implicit Bias in the Evidence: An Evaluation of Female-Predominant Disease (5R01AI154533-03). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10468199. Licensed CC0.

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