# The Health and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 and Policy Responses

> **NIH NIH U01** · OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY · 2022 · $475,734

## Abstract

Project Summary
This project develops, estimates, and simulates a cutting-edge model of the health and economic impacts of
the COVID-19 pandemic and policy responses to it. The model has four original features: First, it allows for
two-way interactions between infections and economic outcomes. These are important because even though
the COVID-19 pandemic is fundamentally a matter of public health, it is essential to account for how the
pandemic and the policy responses to it affect the economy and how, in turn, the economic impacts affect
health, including mental health. Second, it builds policies into a model that accounts for geosocial spread
because the SARS-CoV-2 virus is spread through contact with others and policy decisions in one area affect
the rest of the country. Third, it allows for incidence rates that are measured only through imperfect proxies,
which is particularly important for modeling the prevalence of the virus early in the pandemic in the U.S. as well
as in many parts of the world for the foreseeable future. Lastly, the model accounts for disparate impacts
across demographic groups, which is critical given that the pandemic has had dramatically different effects on
different demographic groups (e.g., by age, gender, race, ethnicity, and living arrangements). This work
extends earlier pilot projects that develop a model with the first and second features. Once complete, the
model will make it possible to identify the best sets of economic and health outcomes, including infections and
mortality, that could have been achieved and the policies that would have produced to those best-case
scenario outcomes. It will make it possible to identify the ways in which actual policies deviated from the best
policies. It will also make it possible to rigorously quantify the health and economic costs of deviating from the
optimal policies overall and for specific demographic groups. In addition to understanding the ways in which
policies and outcomes could have been improved as lessons for future outbreaks and pandemics, the
estimates can quantify the cost of vaccination rates stalling beneath herd immunity levels. The model can be
applied to different countries and to cross-country analysis, and its features are intended to apply to public
health crises more generally, such as the opioid epidemic. The ability to apply the model to other epidemics will
allow policy makers to “compare and contrast” the impacts of different epidemics as well as the same epidemic
in different locations using a common approach. Additionally, the project conducts several less structured
analyses that document the health and labor market impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policy
responses to it. This work will generate results of interest in their own right as policy makers weigh and
measure the efficacy of public health responses, will help identify key phenomena to incorporate into our
model, and will help us to ensure that the qualitative simulation resul...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10491968
- **Project number:** 5U01AG076549-02
- **Recipient organization:** OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Bruce A Weinberg
- **Activity code:** U01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2022
- **Award amount:** $475,734
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2021-09-30 → 2026-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10491968

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10491968, The Health and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 and Policy Responses (5U01AG076549-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10491968. Licensed CC0.

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