# The Impact of Land Use Change on Transmission Potential Networks and Disease Spread in Rural Madagascar

> **NIH NIH R01** · DUKE UNIVERSITY · 2022 · $94,500

## Abstract

ABSTRACT
Anthropogenic land-use change influences multiple dimensions of infectious disease
transmission among humans and other animals. Under parent grant RO1 TW011493, we are
integrating ecological and social sciences approaches to investigate zoonotic disease
emergence in rural Madagascar, where several zoonotic diseases represent significant public
health challenges. To capture the complexity of dynamics at the human-animal interface, we are
studying multiple host and pathogen species along gradients of land use change. An
overarching goal of the research is to build epidemiologically relevant networks that represent
close-contact and environmental overlap among humans, domesticated mammals, and wild
small mammals, and to test whether these “transmission potential networks” predict infection
patterns in human populations (i.e., health disparities). This supplemental request extends this
research to consider the effects of Climate Change and Health (CCH). We will pursue two
Specific Aims to establish initial findings that, if confirmatory, will advance the Specific Aims of
the parent grant while also serving as initial data for future funding applications focused on
CCH. In Specific Aim 1, we will investigate how knowledge and perceptions of climate change
are impacting rural farmers’ decisions about land use, and the impact of climate change on
health and food security. We will also consider how a farmer’s connectedness on social
networks relates to their perceptions of climate change and resilience to extreme weather and
food insecurity. In Specific Aim 2, we will investigate interacting effects of land use change and
climate change on small mammal communities and the zoonotic pathogens that they harbor. To
do so, we will initiate a new long-term study on weather patterns at eight locations at one of our
study sites, and then combine these new data with previous data from within the National Park
to assess climate change in the area. We will also quantify the degree of land use change that
has occurred on nine trapping grids and investigate how land use change influences the
mammal communities and their pathogens on those grids. Success with these research aims
will enable us to begin addressing questions related to CCH in this study system, while
positioning our team for new funding to investigate additional CCH questions in the next phases
of our research. This research will address two of the NIH’s Core Pillars of the CCH Initiative:
Health Effects Research and Health Equity.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10672543
- **Project number:** 3R01TW011493-04S1
- **Recipient organization:** DUKE UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Charles Nunn
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2022
- **Award amount:** $94,500
- **Award type:** 3
- **Project period:** 2019-07-17 → 2024-04-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10672543

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10672543, The Impact of Land Use Change on Transmission Potential Networks and Disease Spread in Rural Madagascar (3R01TW011493-04S1). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-28 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10672543. Licensed CC0.

---

*[NIH grants dataset](/datasets/nih-grants) · CC0 1.0*