# Modeling the impact and cost-effectiveness of next-generation rotavirus vaccine strategies in low- and middle-income countries

> **NIH NIH R01** · YALE UNIVERSITY · 2023 · $425,285

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
Despite the introduction of live oral rotavirus vaccines into more than 90 countries worldwide, rotavirus remains
a leading cause of severe diarrhea in children and a major source of morbidity and mortality in low- and
middle-income countries (LMICs). Rotavirus vaccination has been effective at controlling the burden of
rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis (RVGE) in high-income countries, but the response, efficacy, and impact of
current live oral rotavirus vaccines is lower in LMICs for multiple reasons that are still not fully understood. New
vaccines and approaches may be needed to overcome the poor immune response to current live oral rotavirus
vaccines in LMICs. Next-generation rotavirus vaccines, including neonatal and parenteral subunit vaccines, are
currently in development and undergoing clinical trials at our field sites in Malawi and Ghana. Models are
needed to extrapolate the results of these trials to the population level. We will use mathematical models to
predict the potential impact of different rotavirus vaccination strategies, accounting for both the direct and
indirect effects of vaccination. We will then conduct economic evaluations to determine the most cost-effective
approach to reducing the burden of diarrhea due to rotavirus. We will begin by focusing on Malawi and Ghana,
where we have previously developed models and have good pre- and post-vaccination surveillance data. We
will then extend our approach to predict vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness across all LMICs. Our analyses
will help to better define the vaccine response, duration of immunity, and price at which next-generation
rotavirus vaccines are likely to be cost-effective, and will provide a validated platform that decision-makers in
LMICs can use to weigh the costs and benefits of different rotavirus vaccination strategies in their country.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10691238
- **Project number:** 5R01AI112970-09
- **Recipient organization:** YALE UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Virginia E Pitzer
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2023
- **Award amount:** $425,285
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2015-02-01 → 2025-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10691238

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10691238, Modeling the impact and cost-effectiveness of next-generation rotavirus vaccine strategies in low- and middle-income countries (5R01AI112970-09). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10691238. Licensed CC0.

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