# Modeling Health Histories and the Dynamics of Social Inequality in a Nonhuman Primate Population

> **NIH NIH R21** · CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH · 2023 · $209,976

## Abstract

Project Summary
The broad goal of the proposed project is to increase understanding of the dynamics of socially driven health
disparities by developing improved methods to forecast individual health histories using a new primate model
exposed to different levels of social disadvantage. Health disparities across different subgroups are a crucial
societal problem1-3 and thus, accurate models describing and forecasting individual health histories are a
fundamental first step to identify strategies for intervention. Most current models4-5 assume that the observed
gradual accumulation of health decline in human populations reflect the change in the health history of individuals
across their lifespan. However, recent work on functional limitations6 suggests that individual health histories are
better described as a punctuated equilibrium pattern where the individual may experience periods of long-term
stability interrupted by sudden changes. This points towards discrepancies between models used to test
hypotheses about the impact of cumulative disadvantage over the lifespan, and the actual health histories
experienced by individuals. To narrow the health gap and thus foster healthy aging across all groups, the
theoretical and practical limitations imposed by current health history forecast methods must be overcome.
This project aims to improve analytical understanding of health disparity dynamics by employing a comparative
approach using data from the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population. This population uniquely allows for
integrative longitudinal studies of health in a naturalistic, socially complex population, and thus is an ideal primate
model system to yield information about how different individuals transition between multiple states of health
across the socially stratified adult lifespan. The first aim is to characterize transition rules between multiple states
of health across the socially stratified adult lifespan using indexes of health comprising both psychological and
physiological health. The second aim is to use this new empirical dataset to formulate and develop a multistate
forecasting model to analyze changing patterns of health and their relation to an individual’s social environment.
The third aim is to then forecast cumulative health penalties and divergent health outcomes in order to identify
stable or changing gaps in health across subgroups exposed to different levels of social disadvantage, such as
social status and social integration. These aims will allow the formulation of an accurate dynamic health history
forecast model, the examination of whether and how individual sociality affects health state transitions across
sex and age, and ultimately the refinement, modification, and adaptation of data collection and current model
assumptions for accurate assessment of socially driven health disparities. Specifically, this study will contribute
to the NIH Stage 0 of Intervention Development through basic science, opening space ...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10704503
- **Project number:** 5R21AG072285-02
- **Recipient organization:** CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH
- **Principal Investigator:** Raisa Hernandez Pacheco
- **Activity code:** R21 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2023
- **Award amount:** $209,976
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2022-09-15 → 2025-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10704503

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10704503, Modeling Health Histories and the Dynamics of Social Inequality in a Nonhuman Primate Population (5R21AG072285-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10704503. Licensed CC0.

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