# The Influence of Sugary Beverage Taxes on Fast Food Restaurant Purchases: An Evaluation Using National Sales Data

> **NIH NIH R01** · NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE · 2024 · $786,886

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
 This project will examine the impact of taxes on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) utilizing
detailed sales data from one of the largest fast food retailers in the U.S. Taxes on SSBs are one of the
most promising solutions to reduce population-wide consumption of these unhealthful beverages and,
consequently, their contribution to obesity and the health challenges of cardiovascular disease,
diabetes and cancer. SSB taxes have reduced purchasing and consumption of SSBs in settings such
as supermarkets and other food stores across the seven U.S. cities that have implemented them.
However, fast food restaurants are also a key source of SSBs -- more than a third of U.S. adults
consume fast food on any given day, often including an SSB, and a single beverage at a fast food
restaurant contains more than the recommended daily allowance of calories from added sugars in just
one serving – and have not been studied. The central hypothesis is that SSB taxes will reduce
purchase of SSBs at fast food restaurants, with a greater impact in lower-income census tracts, despite
less than complete “pass-through” of the tax to the consumer by the fast food restaurants. Using
detailed sales data and appropriate comparison groups from multiple communities, the study estimates
the influence of SSB tax policies in a detailed and causal way for several years after taxes are
implemented. The model is a difference-in-difference approach, taking advantage of the fact that some
locations implemented taxes and (most) others did not. The study will look at sales in localities that are
similar at baseline (before taxes) and determine how they diverge after a tax is implemented. This is the
first study to rigorously examine SSB taxes across the U.S. in a longitudinal manner, including
thousands of retail locations for Taco Bell and hundreds of millions of purchases. The national scale of
the data and multiple restaurants within each city that implemented a tax will allow estimation of
whether effects of taxes differ by community income, critical to understanding health disparities and the
regressive nature of SSB taxes.
The specific aims are:
  Aim 1: Determine the change in price paid in fast food restaurants as a result of SSB taxes (i.e.,
 effective “pass-through”).
  Aim 2: Determine the change in beverage calories purchased per customer order as a result of SSB
taxes.
  Aim 3: Determine how neighborhood characteristics, such as the income of the area in which a
 restaurant is located, influence both pass-through and beverage calories purchased in response
 to SSB taxes.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10782452
- **Project number:** 5R01HL157191-03
- **Recipient organization:** NEW YORK UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE
- **Principal Investigator:** Brian Elbel
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $786,886
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2022-02-01 → 2026-01-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10782452

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10782452, The Influence of Sugary Beverage Taxes on Fast Food Restaurant Purchases: An Evaluation Using National Sales Data (5R01HL157191-03). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10782452. Licensed CC0.

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