# Cumulative Demographic and Health Effects of Climate Exposures

> **NIH NIH R03** · PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE · 2024 · $171,498

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY
This project will study how exposure to climatic variability (i.e., temperature and precipitation anomalies) during
different phases of the life course, from early childhood through adulthood, affect older adults’ health,
economic status, and migration behaviors. We draw on data from the Indonesian and Mexican Family Life
Surveys to measure three health outcomes (body mass index, hemoglobin, and blood pressure), consumption
expenditures, and lifetime migration status among adults aged 50+ years in Indonesia (~36,000 observations
from ~17,000 individuals) and Mexico (~19,400 observations from ~13,100 individuals). We link these
demographic records to high-resolution climate data, and measure individuals’ climate exposures during early
childhood (ages -1 to 5), adolescence (ages 12 to 18), and early adulthood (ages 19 to 25). We fit a series of
fixed effects regression models to measure the independent effects of climate exposures during the three focal
critical periods, while controlling for relevant demographic characteristics and spatial and temporal
confounders. We then evaluate whether and how climate effects vary by age, sex, and rural (urban) residence
at birth, all of which we expect to be correlated with climate vulnerability. Our third set of analyses evaluate
whether exposure to recurring shocks from early childhood through adulthood have compounding and (or)
cumulative effects on health in older adulthood. We also perform a series of supplemental analyses that test
the robustness of our findings to alternative data and measurement decisions and compare the effects of
earlier-life and contemporaneous shocks on health in later life. This study provides new evidence about the
links between climate change and older adults’ demographic and health outcomes in the developing world,
where the severity of climate change and extent of population aging are expected to increase in the decades
ahead.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10788643
- **Project number:** 1R03AG084950-01
- **Recipient organization:** PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE
- **Principal Investigator:** Brian Thiede
- **Activity code:** R03 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $171,498
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2024-09-20 → 2026-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10788643

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10788643, Cumulative Demographic and Health Effects of Climate Exposures (1R03AG084950-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-26 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10788643. Licensed CC0.

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