# RFA-CE-23-006, Do state alcohol-related firearm laws reduce mortality? A multicomponent impact evaluation

> **NIH ALLCDC R01** · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · 2023 · $349,898

## Abstract

Project Summary: Firearms are a major source of preventable morbidity and mortality in the United States,
contributing to over 45,000 deaths in 2020 and leading to substantial costs to society. Recent analyses
estimate that one-third of firearm decedents had consumed alcohol, while other studies have demonstrated
an association between alcohol use and firearm-related suicide. The intersection between firearms and
alcohol use is a topic that has received relatively little attention to date, but policy interventions that address
that intersection have wide public support and may offer new directions for tackling the large and growing
burden of firearm-related harms. One challenge is how to address these problems without unduly burdening
the large number of gun owners who are unlikely to harm themselves or others. Consistent with priorities
established in the Institute of Medicine/National Research Council Report Priorities for Research to Reduce the
Threat of Firearm-Related Deaths, this study will identify public policies that target the intersection of alcohol
and firearms and provide a rigorous evaluation of their potential impacts on firearm-related homicide, suicide
and unintentional deaths over the 2010 to 2022 period. To accomplish these objectives, the study will identify
and analyze the scope and content of legal texts related to state laws that explicitly target alcohol
impairment/use and firearm sales, ownership and use. The potential impact of these laws will then be
assessed using state-level data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) while controlling for the rest of
the firearm and alcohol policy context within states. The role of potential effect modifiers such as age, sex, and
race/ethnicity will then be assessed for each outcome, including intimate partner homicide, using individual-
level data from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). The multidisciplinary team of attorneys,
engineers, public administration and public health scholars will employ legal research, content analysis,
rigorous machine learning and causal inference methods, as well as multi-level and inverse-probability
regression analyses to objectively and rigorously examine the scope of these laws, assess their impact (if any)
on firearm-related deaths, and identify any factors that may moderate their effects over a long time period. In
addition to publishing findings from the analyses, the study team will produce an interactive web-based tool
for public use that allows users to understand the alcohol, firearm and alcohol-related firearm policies in their
states, as well as visualize firearm-related deaths in their states over the time period. This proposal is
responsive to RFA-CE-23-006 Funding Option A.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10791372
- **Project number:** 1R01CE003617-01
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES
- **Principal Investigator:** James Macinko
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** ALLCDC
- **Fiscal year:** 2023
- **Award amount:** $349,898
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2023-09-30 → 2025-09-29

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10791372

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10791372, RFA-CE-23-006, Do state alcohol-related firearm laws reduce mortality? A multicomponent impact evaluation (1R01CE003617-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-25 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10791372. Licensed CC0.

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