# Lumbar Stenosis Prognostic Subgroups for Personalizing Care and Treatment (PROSPECTS)

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · 2024 · $587,793

## Abstract

Project Summary/Abstract
The overall objective of this project is to develop and evaluate a clinically useful predictive model of long-term
function in older patients initiating non-surgical care for symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis. Lumbar spinal
stenosis is a common cause of low back pain and its associated disability among older adults, but there is little
data on prognosis to guide clinical trial design and clinical decision making. Using a prospective, inception
cohort study design, we will identify prognostic trajectories that can be easily applied clinically and describe
each group's phenotype using baseline variables. We will then develop and estimate the performance of a
model to predict patients' 12-month physical function. We will enroll adults aged 50 years and older initiating
non-surgical care for symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis. Participants will be recruited from The Duke Spine
Clinic and UW Medicine spine clinics. Baseline characteristics and candidate predictor variables, selected a
priori, will be measured after the index visit using patient-reported information from telephone interviews and
electronic medical record data. Back-related outcomes will be measured using a phone interview at 3, 6, and
12 months after the initial visit. Healthcare and medication use during the six months after the new visit will be
measured using the electronic medical record and patient questionnaires. This design will provide the highest
level of evidence to date for the prognosis of patients with symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis not receiving
surgery. A parsimonious, accurate, and clinically useful prognostic model can be used to guide participant
selection for future clinical trials, as an adjustment or modification variable in studies comparing different
treatments, and can lead to new tailored treatment approaches for individuals with symptomatic lumbar spinal
stenosis. Ultimately, this line of research has substantial potential to improve the effectiveness and value of
care for patients with symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis. Tailored treatment pathways for older adults with
symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis in non-surgical settings are currently non-existent, but they have shown
great promise in other back pain populations, such as non-specific back pain in primary care settings.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10843180
- **Project number:** 5R01AG069891-05
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
- **Principal Investigator:** Sean Daniel Rundell
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $587,793
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2020-09-30 → 2026-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10843180

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10843180, Lumbar Stenosis Prognostic Subgroups for Personalizing Care and Treatment (PROSPECTS) (5R01AG069891-05). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10843180. Licensed CC0.

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