# How the short-term influence of drinking consequences shapes the development of expectancies: An event-level study

> **NIH NIH F31** · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · 2024 · $48,974

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
People experience more positive than negative consequences from drinking,1 but negative consequences
often have the potential to have a larger impact on a person (e.g., romantic or friendship problems, poor
academic performance, and unsafe driving).2,3 According to alcohol expectancy theory4 and social learning
theory,5 the experience of consequences after drinking leads to the development or updating of expectancies
(e.g., beliefs about what consequence will occur as a result of drinking).4 However, understanding an
individual’s expectancy evaluations such as likelihoods and valences likely depend, at least in part, on how
individuals perceive recently experienced consequences. Previous research has not consistently evaluated
people’s evaluations of consequences,6–9 and if they do they only evaluate the consequence once either cross-
sectionally or retrospectively the next day. This prevents us from gaining an understanding of how people view
these consequences and how their views change with time. In addition to the changing consequence
evaluations, research has typically aggregated across positive and negative expectancies6,8,10–13 which has
prevented us from developing an understanding of how expectancy evaluations are altered following the
experience of specific consequences and how these may change leading up to a drinking event. To address
these gaps, the proposed F31 will use a complex ecological momentary assessment (EMA) design to assess
consequence and expectancy evaluations over the short term to examine changes in people’s perceptions
based on their experiences. Specific Aims include (1) test whether Fading Affect Bias (FAB) can be observed
as changes in people’s evaluations of positive and negative drinking consequences following weekend drinking
episodes over the course of a week and (2) test whether likelihoods change over the short term, to what extent
these changes depend on prior experience of these consequences, whether FAB can be observed as changes
in people’s valences of negative expectancies, and whether increases can be observed as changes in people’s
valences of positive expectancies leading up to a drinking episode, and (3) test how the changes in
consequence evaluations are associated with changes in likelihoods and valences over the short term. To
complement these aims, the applicant will receive training in (1) alcohol expectancy theory and young adult
alcohol consequences and expectancies, (2) design and implementation of longitudinal ecological momentary
assessment (EMA) studies, (3) quantitative analysis, and (4) research dissemination via manuscript
preparation and conference presentations. Study findings will have important implications for future alcohol
expectancies prevention research. Specifically, results can be used to inform individuals on a daily-level of
when they may be susceptible to experiencing a greater number of negative consequences from drinking on a
given occasion and p...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10849671
- **Project number:** 5F31AA031153-02
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
- **Principal Investigator:** Megan Schultz
- **Activity code:** F31 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $48,974
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2023-07-01 → 2026-06-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10849671

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10849671, How the short-term influence of drinking consequences shapes the development of expectancies: An event-level study (5F31AA031153-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-25 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10849671. Licensed CC0.

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