# COVID-19 and Cohort Longevity: Causal Estimates from a Cohort Discontinuity Design

> **NIH NIH R21** · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · 2024 · $271,362

## Abstract

Project Summary
In this R21, we propose a detailed study of Covid-19’s impact on the mortality of single-year birth cohorts of
males and females in France and the United States, with additional analyses by race for the United States. The
findings from this R21 will complement existing studies of the mortality impact of Covid-19 that have almost
exclusively adopted a period approach using measures such as period life expectancy. Our proposed analyses
will combine important developments in the formal demography of cohort survivorship by Guillot and
colleagues with a causal identification strategy employing a novel cohort discontinuity design developed by Wu,
Mark, and colleagues to identify the causal effect of the Great Recession on U.S. fertility. Our analyses will
provide credible causal estimates of: (1) the effect of Covid-19 on all-cause mortality for single-year birth
cohorts of males and females in France and the United States, and for Black and White Americans in the
United States; and (2) the degree to which the Covid-19 mortality shock has offset or reversed pre-pandemic
progress in cohort survival. Our analyses will rely throughout on secondary data from French and U.S. vital
registers that provide detailed, high quality data on all-cause mortality for single-year birth cohorts of males
and females. Findings will break new ground by providing credible causal evidence relevant to ongoing
mortality research and debates on racial disparities, health systems, pension schemes, and population
dynamics.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10868936
- **Project number:** 1R21AG086923-01
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
- **Principal Investigator:** MICHEL GUILLOT
- **Activity code:** R21 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $271,362
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2024-06-01 → 2026-03-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10868936

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10868936, COVID-19 and Cohort Longevity: Causal Estimates from a Cohort Discontinuity Design (1R21AG086923-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-26 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10868936. Licensed CC0.

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