# Predicting and Understanding the Use of Nicotine Products In a Rapidly Evolving Nicotine Marketplace: The International Nicotine Product, Policy, and Market (INPAM) Study

> **NIH NIH P01** · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · 2024 · $1,276,812

## Abstract

OVERALL SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
The proposed renewal of this P01 builds upon the longstanding International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy
Evaluation Project, which has used cross-country comparisons and a common mediation model to evaluate the
behavioral impacts of national-level tobacco control policies. The current P01 has extensively researched and
documented the transitions between cigarettes and nicotine vaping products and how policies impact their use.
For the renewal period, we are adding heated tobacco products, thus extending our previous two-product
model to three products, but otherwise maintaining a similar team structure and research approach. The goal
of this P01 renewal application is to address the question “What have different countries done to regulate
tobacco products and how has this impacted tobacco use behaviors?” Our common integrated theoretical
framework enables us to examine how and why policies and industry actions exert effects, as well as explore
under what conditions products or policy interventions might translate into actual population-level impacts. We
focus on the well-established 4 `P's' – product, price, placement, and promotion, and how public health policy
and industry actions impact consumer perceptions, behavior, and ultimately health endpoints. Comparing the
experiences of different countries with varying regulatory approaches is intended to inform United States public
policy, based upon the best science available to maximize population health. To accomplish this, we propose
to analyze policies and industry actions in different jurisdictions to answer the following three integrated
questions: 1) Does the policy/industry action have an impact? (causality); 2) Under what conditions is it
effective? (moderation); and 3) How is it effective? (mediation). The proposed studies assess direct and
indirect or unintended effects that can affect the overall impact of a policy or action. We propose to conduct this
work with four inter-related Projects, an Administrative Core, and two Shared Resource Cores, which
collectively will: 1) track cohorts of adult tobacco users in 7 countries; 2) conduct repeated cross sectional
surveys of youth and young adults in 3 countries; 3) utilize the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace to evaluate
the effects of product availability, policy actions, and the illicit marketplace; and 4) perform statistical modeling
using input from the Projects to predict consumer response. The three P01 specific aims are to: 1) understand
how policies and industry actions impact consumer behavior; 2) develop scientific methods for assessing
response to policies; and 3) forecast population impact of different policy approaches.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10919173
- **Project number:** 5P01CA200512-09
- **Recipient organization:** MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA
- **Principal Investigator:** KENNETH MICHAEL CUMMINGS
- **Activity code:** P01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $1,276,812
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2016-04-19 → 2026-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10919173

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10919173, Predicting and Understanding the Use of Nicotine Products In a Rapidly Evolving Nicotine Marketplace: The International Nicotine Product, Policy, and Market (INPAM) Study (5P01CA200512-09). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-26 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10919173. Licensed CC0.

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