# AppalTRuST Project 3: Impact of proposed tobacco product rules in Appalachia on consumption and product switching with the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace

> **NIH NIH U54** · UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY · 2024 · $620,150

## Abstract

ABSTRACT – Project 3
Our overall goal, reflecting AppalTRuST’s Integrative Theme of investigating the effects of regulatory changes
on tobacco product use in Appalachian KY, is to assess the impact of proposed tobacco product regulations
using behavioral economic methods that we have developed and refined in past years to characterize the
consumption of tobacco products within the complex nicotine marketplace of Appalachian KY, a diverse and
underserved rural region that would greatly benefit from focused tobacco regulatory science research. This
project primarily falls under the Regulatory Scientific Domain of Impact Analysis. In 2009, the Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) was granted authority to regulate tobacco products to benefit public health. In the years
since, the FDA has proposed potential regulatory actions that may benefit public health, including regulating
the maximum nicotine content in combustible cigarettes and restricting flavors of combusted and non-
combusted tobacco products. Estimating the impact of any proposed regulatory action is complicated by the
existence of a complex tobacco marketplace containing multiple products that are economic substitutes for one
another and the frequent introduction of new tobacco products by manufacturers. Furthermore, when
compared to more urban, non-Appalachian communities, rural Appalachian communities often have 1) higher
rates of tobacco product use overall, 2) different use patterns that include more combusted tobacco products,
and 3) different product availability in tobacco stores. It is therefore important to estimate any differential impact
of proposed tobacco-product regulations in Appalachia. Using an Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM)
model where product availability is manipulated across groups and demand elasticity and substitution is
measured across tobacco products, we will estimate the impact of regulating 1) nicotine content of combusted
cigarettes, 2) menthol flavor restrictions in combustible cigarettes, and 3) flavor additive restrictions in non-
combusted nicotine/tobacco products including ENDS. Across two aims, we will assess the impact of these
three regulations within Appalachia (Aim 1) and the effect of rurality on impact of these proposed regulations in
Appalachia (Aim 2).

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10934529
- **Project number:** 5U54DA058256-02
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY
- **Principal Investigator:** Mikhail Nikolaas Koffarnus
- **Activity code:** U54 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $620,150
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2023-09-30 → 2028-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10934529

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10934529, AppalTRuST Project 3: Impact of proposed tobacco product rules in Appalachia on consumption and product switching with the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (5U54DA058256-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-26 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10934529. Licensed CC0.

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