# Forecasting Trachoma Control - Diversity Supplement

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · 2024 · $52,071

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
Annual mass azithromycin distribution dramatically reduces the prevalence strains of Chlamydia trachomatis
that lead to blindness. Current World Health Organization guidelines indicate that annual mass azithromycin
distribution should be continued until district-level prevalence of the clinical sign of trachoma, trachomatous
inflammation-follicular (TF), drops below 5%. However, TF doesn’t correlate well with true prevalence and there
is no gold standard to detect this. Here, we propose that a Hidden Markov Model 1) will identify the true
prevalence in hypo-endemic areas that can be used as a signal that the mass azithromycin protocol was
successful and an indicator to stop antibiotics and 2) identify hyperendemic areas that the protocol has not been
successful to change the treatment regimen. We anticipate that results will provide evidence to support altering
the modification of current interventions for trachoma.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10948643
- **Project number:** 3R01EY025350-05A1S1
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO
- **Principal Investigator:** THOMAS M LIETMAN
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $52,071
- **Award type:** 3
- **Project period:** 2016-06-01 → 2028-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10948643

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10948643, Forecasting Trachoma Control - Diversity Supplement (3R01EY025350-05A1S1). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10948643. Licensed CC0.

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