# Impact of Interventions on Future Trends in Subnational Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in the US

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · 2024 · $808,029

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
Geographic and racial/ethnic disparities in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) – the leading cause of death in the
U.S. – remain large. There is a gap in the available evidence on the burden of heart failure in particular and its
role in health disparities more generally, especially at the local level. While the U.S. is rich in local health data,
the data is poorly integrated. Disease models and population health simulation are an important way to integrate
complex patterns of risk exposure and disease burden with other population trends including income, education,
aging, migration, and health care access. Previous CVD forecasts and policy models have produced only single
geography – primarily national – estimates, which cannot provide the evidence needed to address geographic
disparities. The overarching goal of this project will be to expand the evidence base for prevention and treatment
policies for heart failure in the U.S., reduce disparities, and expand publicly available datasets and software
models to support the broader use of health metrics for cardiovascular research. For this work, we will adapt
econometric, geospatial, and epidemiologic modelling methods by leveraging the large data and computational
resources of the Global Burden of Disease Study. Aim 1 is the estimation of county-level heart failure burden,
including prevalence, mortality, years of life lost prematurely and disability-adjusted life years from 2000 through
the current year as well as projections through the year 2060, by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and ejection fraction
for each U.S. state, including new data and methods to account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim
2 is a comprehensive and comparable assessment of the effect size of risk factors leading to heart failure using
a causal inference framework and attributable fraction methods. Aim 3 is the adaptation of our existing 50-state
health policy simulation (the U.S. Burden of Disease Health Policy Simulation) for use with heart failure in order
to evaluate the real-world impact of interventions to prevent or reduce the burden of heart failure when delivered
at scale. Our results are designed to guide local decision-makers considering a range of policy options to reduce
the burden of heart failure.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10978113
- **Project number:** 2R01HL136868-06
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
- **Principal Investigator:** Gregory Andrew Roth
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $808,029
- **Award type:** 2
- **Project period:** 2018-09-22 → 2029-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10978113

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10978113, Impact of Interventions on Future Trends in Subnational Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in the US (2R01HL136868-06). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-06-14 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10978113. Licensed CC0.

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