# Center for Transformative Infectious Disease Research on Climate, Health and Equity in a Changing Environment (C-CHANGE)

> **NIH NIH P20** · CORNELL UNIVERSITY · 2024 · $343,157

## Abstract

PROJECT 1 PROJECT DESCRIPTION
Our proposed studies will investigate how climate change affects risk of spillover of zoonotic infections from
bats. Our work will help identify evidence-based strategies to prevent disease emergence in multiple ecological
settings. Bats are the known or progenitor hosts of four of the nine diseases identified by the World Health
Organization as research priorities. Bats also may be exquisitely vulnerable to changes in climate because
their food resources are climate driven and physiologically they are sensitive to temperature changes. We will
leverage two long-running datasets on emerging pathogens from bat hosts to examine the role of climate in
driving shedding patterns and spatial behavior of bats and likelihood of exposures in humans.
Our methods, innovative both conceptually and methodologically, will use two complementary datasets, one
from Australia and one from South Africa. We will integrate these datasets to move beyond assumption-laden
correlations of spillover risk towards mechanistic understanding of how climatic drivers interact with ecological,
environmental, and host-viral drivers of infections to drive disease emergence. Our work will help test whether
mechanisms that drive spillover in South Africa and Australia are similar and are therefore likely to be
generalizable to other geographical areas. Our work sets the stage for remote sensing methods to identify
places and periods to prioritize for prevention of spillover. In Aim 1, we will identify climate-driven effects on
the health of bats, diet, and paramyxo-, corona-, and filovirus infection dynamics in Australia and
South Africa, using retrospective data. Hypothesis: We will observe higher prevalence of viral shedding in
sampled bats after or during specific climatic conditions (e.g., hot, dry, then wet conditions, flood, high rainfall)
and higher prevalence will be correlated to markers of bat health, diet and viral infection dynamics. We will use
novel explainable-AI and Bayesian multilevel models to analyze these data. In Aim 2: we will investigate how
host space-use changes in relation to climate-driven resource availability and how these changes drive
spatial and temporal overlap of bats and humans. Hypothesis: resource constraints on natural food sources
will lead to increased contact between bats, humans, and bridging hosts.
Our work will lead to strategies, derived from empirical data and modeling, that can help prevent spillover of
pathogens from bats to humans. Preventing spillovers reduces human mortality and morbidity, is highly cost-
effective when strategies are successful, and can lead to interventions that buffer effects of climate change on
sensitive species such as bats.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 10982890
- **Project number:** 1P20AI186093-01
- **Recipient organization:** CORNELL UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Raina Plowright
- **Activity code:** P20 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $343,157
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2024-09-17 → 2027-08-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10982890

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 10982890, Center for Transformative Infectious Disease Research on Climate, Health and Equity in a Changing Environment (C-CHANGE) (1P20AI186093-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/10982890. Licensed CC0.

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