# Modeling biotic and environmental drivers of seasonal West Nile virus transmission

> **NIH NIH R01** · OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY · 2024 · $748,432

## Abstract

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most prevalent arbovirus in the US and seriously threatens the health
of livestock, wildlife (especially birds) and humans. WNV transmission shows clear annual cycles, with high
levels of human and animal cases during the summer, and few or no cases during the late fall, winter, and
early spring. Furthermore, WNV transmission is higher in urban areas relative to rural areas. Yet, we do not
fully understand what is driving seasonal and spatial differences in WNV transmission, or how cycles of
WNV transmission are able to reinitiate each year. The investigators work from the central hypothesis that
mosquitoes and birds are affected by differences in rural and urban landscapes that lead to predictable,
seasonal changes in WNV transmission. The overall objective of this proposal is to develop predictive
models that incorporate critical drivers of WNV transmission in rural and urban areas, including seasonal
changes in mosquito and avian abundance and community composition. The research team has
complementary expertise in mosquito overwintering, mathematical modeling, and avian disease ecology.
 This proposal combines sophisticated mathematical models with high-resolution, field data from
mosquitoes and birds in rural and urban sites in central and northwestern Ohio. The first goal of the
proposal is to uncover how WNV transmission reinitiates each spring. Mosquito and avian community
composition, WNV infection, mosquito host-use, WNV phylogenetics and measures of urbanization will be
incorporated into predictive models and used to test the hypotheses that WNV-infected urban mosquitoes
terminate their overwintering dormancy in early spring, while uninfected rural mosquitoes acquire WNV
from migratory birds. The second goal is to characterize factors that drive WNV transmission during the
peak of the epidemic. Abiotic factors and data from birds and mosquitoes will be incorporated into models
to determine why WNV transmission starts earlier, persists longer and is higher in cities relative to rural
areas. The third goal is to determine how WNV persists during fall and winter. Continuous collections of
rural and urban mosquitoes and birds, WNV phylogenetics and environmental data will be modeled to test
the hypotheses that urbanization postpones mosquito overwintering dormancy, increases WNV in birds,
and allows more urban mosquitoes to overwinter infected with WNV. Finally, the models will be re-coded to
be adaptable to multiple locations using freely available, open-source weather, bird, and mosquito data.
Thus, at the conclusion of this work the PIs will have developed, parameterized, and validated the first
multispecies, multiannual, and adaptable models to predict WNV transmission across time and space.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 11059602
- **Project number:** 1R01AI188567-01
- **Recipient organization:** OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Megan Elizabeth Meuti
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $748,432
- **Award type:** 1
- **Project period:** 2024-07-15 → 2029-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/11059602

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 11059602, Modeling biotic and environmental drivers of seasonal West Nile virus transmission (1R01AI188567-01). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/11059602. Licensed CC0.

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