# Forecasting Trachoma Control

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · 2024 · $7,602

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
 Trachoma programs have been enormously successful, but they fell short of their goal of Global
Elimination of Trachoma by 2020. Nearly one third of endemic districts still had not met the threshold for control.
Why?
 One reason may be that the 2020 goals were set long before sufficient evidence was available. In the
original grant period, we used program surveys to forecast the distribution of active trachoma worldwide. We
also used NEI clinical trial data to better define the relationship between clinical activity and actual chlamydial
infection. New clinical, infection, and serology data will now enable more precise estimates. In carrying out the
aims of this current proposal, we will use these enriched information sources to forecast which districts will
achieve control under current efforts.
 A second factor is that the trachoma intervention guidelines have essentially been “one size fits all”. Here,
we propose to assess the enhanced interventions necessary to achieve control in hotspots where current efforts
are not sufficient for trachoma control.
 Finally, the WHO plan acknowledged that resurgence may happen. In the original grant period, we
demonstrated that surveys of trachoma prevalence sometimes switched from supporting control to questioning
control. In this current proposal we propose to model resurgence so that surveillance of resurgence can be
improved.
 In summary, we propose: (a) real-time open-access forecasts that set realistic interim and elimination
goals to help keep our specific collaborating stakeholder's programs on track; (b) models for better targeting hot
spots with enhanced interventions to accelerate success; (c) models for rational surveillance for resurgence to
maintain control once success has been declared.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 11087194
- **Project number:** 3R01EY025350-06S1
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO
- **Principal Investigator:** THOMAS M LIETMAN
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $7,602
- **Award type:** 3
- **Project period:** 2016-06-01 → 2028-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/11087194

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 11087194, Forecasting Trachoma Control (3R01EY025350-06S1). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/11087194. Licensed CC0.

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