# Minnesota Population Center

> **NIH NIH P2C** · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · 2024 · $30,223

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
Since 2013, inequities in firearm-related mortality between Black and White youth (ages 1-19) in the United
States (US) have widened. A critical, overlooked aspect of increasing youth firearm-related mortality is a
fourfold increase in firearm-related deaths among Black rural youth. This represents a dramatic reversal from
the historical pattern of lower firearm-related mortality in rural Black youth compared to their urban
counterparts. Four key macro-level factors-structural racism, socioeconomic disadvantage, firearm
availability, and population composition (e.g., migration, age structure}--likely influence recent spatio-temporal
trends in Black youth firearm-related mortality. However, their precise contributions remain unknown. This
project aims to identify state- and county-level factors driving this epidemic of firearm-related mortality
among Black youth, particularly in rural areas. This project has three specific aims. Aim 1: Investigate how
changes in structural racism, socioeconomic disadvantage, firearm availability, and population composition
contribute to increasing Black-White inequities in youth firearm-related mortality in the US in the aggregate.
Aim 2: Compare spatio-temporal patterns in the distribution of these determinants between counties with
higher Black youth firearm-related mortality versus those with lower rates, separately for rural and urban
counties. Aim 3: Explore the extent to which within-county changes in these macro-level factors over time
influence within-county increases in firearm-related mortality among Black rural youth. We will use CDC
restricted-use data for youth firearm-related mortality (1989-2023). A decedent's county of residence will be
linked to county-level demographics from the American Community Survey, population estimates from the US
Census Bureau, and state-level gun ownership data from RAND. Using decomposition techniques, we will
examine how each of the four macro-level factors changed over the course of our study period and the extent
to which change in each factor contributes to changes in Black-White inequities in youth firearm-related
mortality. Next, we will assess the spatio-temporal distribution of these determinants, comparing counties with
higher Black youth firearm-related mortality to those with lower rates, separately for rural and urban areas.
Finally, fixed-effects models will assess the relationship between within-county changes in macro-level factors
and within-county changes in rural Black youth firearm-related mortality. The long-term goal is to eliminate
inequities in youth firearm-related mortality. This timely and urgent project aligns with the goals of NICHD and
its Population Dynamics Branch to improve child and adolescent health and reduce health disparities. It will
also provide insights into how different social and demographic factors operating at multiple levels contribute to
inequities in youth firearm-related mortality. By employing in...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 11089224
- **Project number:** 3P2CHD041023-24S1
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA
- **Principal Investigator:** THERESA LOUISE OSYPUK
- **Activity code:** P2C (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2024
- **Award amount:** $30,223
- **Award type:** 3
- **Project period:** 2001-07-11 → 2026-03-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/11089224

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 11089224, Minnesota Population Center (3P2CHD041023-24S1). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/11089224. Licensed CC0.

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