# Framework for Behavioral Risk Models of Alcohol Problems

> **NIH NIH P60** · PACIFIC INSTITUTE FOR RES AND EVALUATION · 2020 · $380,168

## Abstract

ABSTRACT
We propose to use an agent-based modeling approach to elucidate specific mechanisms underlying alcohol-related
problems and provide a framework for developing comprehensive preventive interventions at the community level.
Agent-based models are a tool to assess the health impacts of specific social mechanisms that support alcohol problems in
community settings within a framework in which drinkers move through their environments (e.g., commute to home or
school) and interact with each other and their environments in ecologically realistic ways (e.g., eat dinner with their
families at home). This modeling process demands a high level of precision with regard to theoretical statements of social
processes and makes explicit those processes in which we might creatively intervene to reduce problems, setting a high
bar for scientific explanation. In this Center component, we will use the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiologic
Dynamics (FRED) platform, an agent-based model with realistic, open-access Census-based synthetic populations that
capture the demographic and geographic heterogeneities of the population of the United States down to the Census Block
level and allows agents to co-evolve with physical and social environments. We will: (1) Apply a behavioral risk model
framework within FRED in order to help clarify specific social ecological mechanisms that underlie the etiology of
alcohol-related problems in California communities; and (2) Develop a select set of scenarios to alter social ecological
mechanisms related to drinking contexts and assess their effects on alcohol-related problems using the FRED platform.
We will extend FRED’s capacities to include unique agent-environment dynamics typical of behavioral risk models
related to alcohol use, alcohol use disorders, and related problems. A simulation platform must have a core set of
capabilities in order to undertake the development of these behavioral risk models. These include the ability to model
individual heterogeneities, heterogeneous agent interactions, and environmental heterogeneity, all of which are built into
FRED. We will construct a set of models that accurately describe drinking agents, drinker movements, drinking
environments, and specific risks within specific environments. Once the models have been constructed, we will change
one element (e.g., increase the number of bars in a community by 10%) and measure how it impacts our outcomes of
interest. We will apply this modeling approach to at least five kinds of problems based on current and prior Center Grant
research: (a) Parents’ abuse and neglect of their children; (b) Early initiation of alcohol use and youth drinking problems
(Component #3); (c) Health impacts related to hyper-availability of alcohol at the US-Mexico border (Component #4); (d)
AUDs, heavy drinking and problems related to drinking outside the home (Component #5); and (e) The impact of social
host ordinances on underage heavy drinking. BRMs allow f...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9828752
- **Project number:** 5P60AA006282-38
- **Recipient organization:** PACIFIC INSTITUTE FOR RES AND EVALUATION
- **Principal Investigator:** Christina Furber Mair
- **Activity code:** P60 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $380,168
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** — → —

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9828752

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9828752, Framework for Behavioral Risk Models of Alcohol Problems (5P60AA006282-38). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9828752. Licensed CC0.

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