# Applying Behavioral Economics to Predict Alcohol Trajectories during the Transition to Adulthood

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS · 2020 · $310,291

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT
Alcohol misuse remains a major public health problem in emerging adults (age 18-25). Excessive drinking is
the largest source of morbidity and mortality in this age group and also predicts subsequent alcohol problems
across the lifespan. A large number of cross-sectional studies have found significant associations between
alcohol misuse and indices from behavioral economics. Specifically, two novel behavioral economic domains -
alcohol demand and proportionate alcohol-related reinforcement - have been consistently associated with
alcohol misuse in emerging adults in cross-sectional and laboratory studies. These motivational measures may
clarify the development of alcohol misuse, but no longitudinal studies have been conducted to date. The
proposed study will use a longitudinal risk design to systematically investigate the relationship between these
measures and changes in alcohol misuse in emerging adults. Specifically, the study will leverage these novel
risk indicators to predict changes in drinking from age 22 to 25, a time period when many individuals `mature
out' of alcohol misuse but others exhibit persistently high levels of problem drinking. To address this question,
the study will assess 530 at-risk drinkers (50% male/50% female) every three months from 22 to 25 using in-
person and Internet-based assessments. The study has two primary aims. The first primary aim is to predict
changes in alcohol misuse in emerging adults using the novel behavioral economic measures - individually, in
combination with one another, and in the context of established risk factors. The second primary aim is to
examine mediating and moderating relationships. Mediational analyses will test whether the behavioral
economic variables causally mediate the development of alcohol misuse over time or, alternatively, whether
their influence is mediated by the established mechanisms. Moderator analyses will systematically examine
differences based on college status (i.e., college vs. non-college) and other substance use. The study also has
a secondary aim to inform future intervention studies. This exploratory aim is to identify the most salient
periods of change and the concurrent psychosocial factors that increase or decrease the value of alcohol.
Collectively, the study will leverage recent advances in behavioral economics to make major contributions to
understanding of alcohol misuse over the transition to adulthood.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9853703
- **Project number:** 5R01AA024930-05
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS
- **Principal Investigator:** JAMES MACKILLOP
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $310,291
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2017-02-01 → 2022-01-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9853703

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9853703, Applying Behavioral Economics to Predict Alcohol Trajectories during the Transition to Adulthood (5R01AA024930-05). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9853703. Licensed CC0.

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