# Monitoring the Future: A Cohort-Sequential Panel Study of Drug Use, Ages 19-60

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · 2020 · $2,037,065

## Abstract

This application is for a 5-year continuation of the national longitudinal panel data collections of the Monitoring the Future
(MTF) study, an ongoing epidemiological and etiological substance use research and reporting project begun in 1975. In
addition to being a basic research study, MTF has become one of the nation's most relied upon sources of information on
trends in illicit drug, alcohol, and tobacco use among American adolescents, college students, and adults. This MTF Panel
application seeks to continue the follow-up surveys of high school graduates at modal ages 19–30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and
now 60. The companion Main grant covers in-school data collections, providing the nationally representative samples of
12th graders for follow up; it also covers data analysis. The Panel and Main components together comprise the integrated
MTF study. MTF's broad measurement covers (a) initiation, use, and cessation for over 50 categories and sub-categories of
licit and illicit drugs, including symptoms of substance use disorders; (b) attitudes and beliefs about substances, perceived
availability, and peer norms; (c) individual risk and protective factors (e.g., depressive affect, pro-social activities); (d)
aspects of key social contexts (e.g., home, work), and social role statuses and transitions; (e) health, social, and achievement
consequences; and (f) risk and protective behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS. The cohort-sequential longitudinal
design permits the measurement and differentiation of three types of change—age, period, and cohort. Each has different
determinants, and all three types of change have been shown by MTF to occur for most drugs. Factors that may explain
historical trends and cohort differences are also monitored; additional factors come from other data that can be (and have
been) combined with MTF data in collaborative efforts. MTF Panel is designed to document the developmental course and
consequences of drug use and related attitudes from adolescence through adulthood (ages 18-60), and to determine the
individual and contextual characteristics and social role transitions that affect use and related attitudes as well a broad array
of adult consequences. Research on risk and protective behaviors for the transmission of HIV/AIDS will be continued and
expanded to include adults aged 19-40. All of this work will be extended to new data collection years, cohorts, and ages
under this application. Substance use among the nation's current college students and non-college youth will be tracked for
another five years, totaling 40 years. The long-term follow-up data will now include age 60 surveys of cohorts who were in
high school during historic peaks in teen substance use, especially important for understanding how earlier and ongoing
substance use and abuse relates to declining health in middle to older adulthood. Impacts of policy changes will be evaluated,
including state-level legalization of marijuana for recreational...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9880407
- **Project number:** 5R01DA016575-18
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
- **Principal Investigator:** JOHN E SCHULENBERG
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $2,037,065
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2003-09-30 → 2022-03-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9880407

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9880407, Monitoring the Future: A Cohort-Sequential Panel Study of Drug Use, Ages 19-60 (5R01DA016575-18). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9880407. Licensed CC0.

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