# Modeling Industry Behavior and the Use of Vaporized Nicotine Products on Population Health

> **NIH NIH P01** · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · 2020 · $191,667

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT 
Patterns of tobacco use may change dramatically as a result of the new vaporized nicotine products (VNPs), 
such as e-cigarettes. The use of VNPs has surged, which is likely driven by the perception that they are less 
harmful than regular cigarettes and are useful smoking cessation aids. At the population level, however, their 
use may delay cessation of cigarettes by employing VNPs as “bridge” products to avoid smoking restrictions, 
and may attract never smokers that may later become smokers. The uptake and use of these products will be 
influenced by the regulatory context in which they are brought to market. In dynamic situations such as these, 
modeling provides a “virtual laboratory” to synthesize existing evidence and compare the impact of multiple 
policies and regulations on health outcomes. 
The specific aims of the proposed project are: Aim 1, Develop a conceptual framework for predicting the 
impact that tobacco control policies have on VNP and smoked tobacco use rates. Inputs and 
parameters will be developed in conjunction with the Project Leaders in this Program Project, and based on the 
relevant literature and the advice of outside expert panels. Aim 2: Develop an economic model of tobacco 
industry behavior and product regulation. Product use will depend on appeal, addiction, and acute toxicity, 
as determined by industry pricing, product content, and marketing. The model will distinguish the role of 
traditional cigarette and specialized VNP firms in the evolution of the VNP market and consider how cigarette 
and VNP industry dynamics are influenced by various regulatory options. Aim 3: Develop models that would 
examine trends in VNP and cigarette use, the effects of policies on use, and health consequences. 
Models of cigarette and VNP use will be developed for the Canada, England, and the US that will be used to 
examine the potential role of policies aimed at cigarettes and VNP use in each nation and compared to the 
other nations. Results will be disseminated to inform the FDA and other regulatory agencies and provide 
documentation and results in user friendly formats. Aim 4: Build comparable models for middle and low 
income countries, with adequate local data. We will compare the role of supply vs demand-reducing 
policies affecting the VNP and cigarette use and associate health effects.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9902372
- **Project number:** 5P01CA200512-05
- **Recipient organization:** MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA
- **Principal Investigator:** David Theodore Levy
- **Activity code:** P01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $191,667
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** — → 2021-09-15

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9902372

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9902372, Modeling Industry Behavior and the Use of Vaporized Nicotine Products on Population Health (5P01CA200512-05). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9902372. Licensed CC0.

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