# Uncovering the Mechanisms Driving Seasonal Polio Incidence: A Modeling Approach Towards Endgame Strategies

> **NIH NIH F32** · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · 2020 · $23,745

## Abstract

Abstract
 Wild poliovirus (WPV), which is known to occur seasonally, is on the path towards eradication but
continues to circulate in specific regions of the world. The Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) can indirectly immunize
unvaccinated individuals through the seasonal shedding of the vaccine. The seasonal timing of WPV
transmission and OPV shedding occur synchronously. Using historical global datasets of reported WPV cases,
and state-of-the-art modeling techniques, this work will examine three open questions regarding polio
epidemiology: (I) does spatial variation exist in the seasonal timing of WPV outbreaks?, (II) what mechanism(s)
are associated with this seasonality?, and (III) how can we improve the global monitoring of polio and expedite
final eradication? I take advantage of a recently digitized, spatially resolved, historical dataset of reported WPV
infections spanning the 20th century in the United States to examine these questions. I will also include 20th
century WPV case data from various African, South American, Middle Eastern, and European countries once
the U.S. models are parameterized. The results of this work will diagnose which environmental, demographic,
or social factors are most strongly tied to seasonal WPV outbreaks. Understanding when and where a WPV
outbreak is most likely to occur and when OPV shedding is at its maximum will allow immunization campaigns
to optimize OPV coverage at the local level, and identify the optimal time of year to increase monitoring efforts
for WPV. Following WPV eradication, this work can be used towards timing mop-up immunization campaigns,
and assist in the monitoring efforts for vaccine-derived polio (cVDPV) strains.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9912092
- **Project number:** 5F32AI134016-03
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
- **Principal Investigator:** Kevin Michael Bakker
- **Activity code:** F32 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $23,745
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2018-05-01 → 2020-08-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9912092

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9912092, Uncovering the Mechanisms Driving Seasonal Polio Incidence: A Modeling Approach Towards Endgame Strategies (5F32AI134016-03). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9912092. Licensed CC0.

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