# Population Dynamics in Africa: Selected Outcomes and Causes

> **NIH NIH R03** · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · 2020 · $78,125

## Abstract

ABSTRACT
This project will provide new insight into climate-induced migration in Sub-Saharan Africa with a focus on how
this process varies over space and how destination areas are affected. To address these issues, we will link
individual-level data on internal migration and employment from eight countries to area-level data on climate
anomalies, vegetation greenness, and nighttime anomalies. This will first allow a fixed-effects analysis of how
individual-level and area-level characteristics modify the climate-migration relationship. We hypothesize that
areas with low population density, low lifetime migration networks, low educational attainment and hot/dry
climates are more likely to experience climate-induced immobilization, or “trapped populations”. Secondly, we
will use an instrumental variables approach to analyze how climate-induced migration affects individual
employment, area-level vegetation greenness, and area-level nighttime luminosity. We hypothesize that
receiving climate-induced migrants will reduce employment of non-migrants, reduce vegetation greenness, and
increase nighttime luminosity. These results will substantially broaden the global knowledge base on climate-
induced migration, which currently provides little insight into which areas are likely to vulnerable to
displacement and immobilization, as well as whether destination areas are likely to experience negative social
consequences from these moves.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9929624
- **Project number:** 5R03HD098357-02
- **Recipient organization:** UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
- **Principal Investigator:** CLARK GRAY
- **Activity code:** R03 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $78,125
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2019-05-15 → 2022-04-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9929624

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9929624, Population Dynamics in Africa: Selected Outcomes and Causes (5R03HD098357-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-06-11 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9929624. Licensed CC0.

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