# Economic Context and Marital Outcomes Over Time

> **NIH NIH R01** · RAND CORPORATION · 2020 · $499,052

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY
 A couple's economic circumstances are strongly associated with marital satisfaction and risk for
divorce, and these associations are especially strong among lower-income couples. Yet the effect of economic
changes on marital outcomes remains a topic of scholarly dispute. Economic and demographic research
consistently reveals that rising unemployment rates and other indicators of economic hardship are associated
with lower divorce rates. Psychological research, however, shows that the direct experience of economic
insecurity is associated with higher risk of divorce. The overarching goal of the proposed research is to
reconcile these literatures and explain how a couple's broader economic context interacts with
the direct experience of their financial circumstances to affect marital outcomes over time. A
premise of this work is that the social and temporal context of a couple shapes the way spouses interpret their
own economic circumstances. When the people around a couple are also struggling financially, spouses should
be less likely to blame each other for their own economic difficulties. When spouses perceive their incomes to
be improving over time, they should be more optimistic about the economic viability of the marriage, even if
their current income level remains low. These social and temporal comparison processes should directly affect
associations between couples' current economic circumstances and their satisfaction with their marriage and
risk for divorce. To evaluate this model, the proposed research will collect four additional waves of data from
an existing sample of 375 first-married couples living in low-income neighborhoods. In a previously-funded
project, these couples were assessed as newlyweds, and provided 5 waves of interview and observational data
over 4 years (Time 1 to Time 5). The new data collection will include additional interviews and social network
assessments collected in couples' homes every 9 months (Time 6 to Time 9). Analyses of the new data will
examine: 1) how changes in couples' financial circumstances covary with changes in their evaluations of marital
satisfaction, 2) whether spouses' attributions for their current financial circumstances moderate associations
between their circumstances and their marital outcomes, 3) how social networks and social comparison
processes shape the way spouses understand their own financial circumstances, 4) how trajectories of change
and temporal comparison processes shape the way spouses understand their own financial circumstances, 5)
how these comparison processes interact with couples' financial circumstances to account for trajectories of
change in marital satisfaction and risk of divorce. Support for this perspective would have immediate
implications for supporting lower-income couples and families, suggesting new targets for intervention (i.e.,
social and temporal comparisons), and allowing policy-makers to target vulnerable couples with more
precision...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9955345
- **Project number:** 5R01HD091832-09
- **Recipient organization:** RAND CORPORATION
- **Principal Investigator:** BENJAMIN REUVEN KARNEY
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $499,052
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2017-09-20 → 2022-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9955345

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9955345, Economic Context and Marital Outcomes Over Time (5R01HD091832-09). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9955345. Licensed CC0.

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