# Project 2: Climate forcing of harmful algal blooms and toxicity exposure in the Northeast U.S.

> **NIH NIH P01** · WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION · 2020 · $139,028

## Abstract

Summary/Abstract
Our goal is to understand and predict how climate variability influences harmful algal bloom (HAB) dynamics,
toxin exposure to the human population, and impacts on human health. We hypothesize that climate-induced
environmental changes will influence the composition, distribution, and severity of HABs in ways that are
predictable based on response to previous climate forcing. Our studies will focus on the dinoflagellate
Alexandrium fundyense and diatoms of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia, organisms that produce saxitoxin and
domoic acid, respectively. Using the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and Nauset Marsh (NM) as model systems, we will
construct hindcast simulations from 1900 through the present. These hindcasts will be based on state-of-the-
art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), into which existing
models of A. fundyense and a to-be-developed model of Pseudo-nitzschia spp. will be incorporated. Hindcasts
will be evaluated on the basis of climate data records assembled herein, documenting fluctuations in
abundance of the target species as well as toxicity (toxin accumulation) in coastal shellfish resources. A
submodel will be developed to estimate human exposure to these toxins. Discrepancies between the hindcasts
and observations will guide iterative model improvement. Once satisfactory agreement has been achieved, the
models will be run in forecast mode with various climate change scenarios. The proposed research will be
integrated into the WHCOHH in several ways: (1) what is learned about bloom dynamics in Project 1 will be
used to improve HAB models; (2) development of the exposure submodel will be undertaken in collaboration
with Project 3; (3) all three projects will participate in the analysis of climate-forced variations in HABs and
threats to human health; and (4) results will be communicated through the Community Engagement Core.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9968265
- **Project number:** 5P01ES028938-03
- **Recipient organization:** WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION
- **Principal Investigator:** DENNIS J MCGILLICUDDY
- **Activity code:** P01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $139,028
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** — → —

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9968265

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9968265, Project 2: Climate forcing of harmful algal blooms and toxicity exposure in the Northeast U.S. (5P01ES028938-03). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9968265. Licensed CC0.

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