# Dementia Prevalence over Time: Proximate Causes and Consequences

> **NIH NIH R01** · RAND CORPORATION · 2020 · $881,678

## Abstract

Abstract
As older adults make up a growing share of the population, the prevalence of dementia will likely increase, but
the magnitude of the increase will depend on the course of age-specific rates. Most projections of Alzheimer's
disease and dementia assume that age-specific prevalence rates do not change and that population aging alone
will drive dementia prevalence trends. There is some recent evidence, however, that age-specific prevalence
may be declining Europe and possibly in the United States.
This study will use data from the Health and Retirement Study to estimate the trajectory of dementia prevalence
and to examine risk factors. Since 1992, the HRS has surveyed biennially a panel of Americans over age 50,
including about 8000 over 70. Data collected include assessments of cognition, health, socioeconomic status,
family background, and now genetic information and biomarkers. A sub-study in the early 2000s administered
an in-depth cognitive assessment covering dementia to 856 HRS respondents, and now a new sub-study to
begin in 2016 will assess dementia status in a subsample of about 3000.
This study has five specific aims. First, it will estimate the age-adjusted prevalence of dementia from 1998 to
2016 in the population over age 70 based on an improved model of dementia probability, including the use of
genetic information; it will also estimate age-adjusted trends in dementia incidence (onset) and dementia
mortality.
Second, it will analyze subpopulations such as by gender or by race/ethnicity to document differences in
dementia risk by groups. It will test whether any such differences can be explained by differences in exposure to
risk factors such as diabetes or education and whether group-specific trends in risk factors affect group-specific
trends in dementia. Third, where risk factors are found to be associated with dementia prevalence, the study will
seek to determine whether these associations reflect causality.
Fourth, using the models of the probability of dementia, the evidence about causality, and forecasts of risk
factors, the study will predict dementia prevalence for the population and for important subpopulations to 2040.
Fifth, the study will forecast the use and availability of informal care, e.g., care by family members, and how it will
affect nursing home use and costs.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9981565
- **Project number:** 5R01AG053972-04
- **Recipient organization:** RAND CORPORATION
- **Principal Investigator:** MICHAEL D HURD
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $881,678
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2016-09-15 → 2022-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9981565

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9981565, Dementia Prevalence over Time: Proximate Causes and Consequences (5R01AG053972-04). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9981565. Licensed CC0.

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