# Core 4:  Statistics and Mathematical Modeling Core

> **NIH NIH P01** · DUKE UNIVERSITY · 2020 · $4,417

## Abstract

ABSTRACT – Statistics and Mathematical Modeling Core (Core 4)
The Statistics and Mathematical Modeling Core (Core 4) will provide data management, statistical analysis
and mathematical modeling support for the Program’s overall goal to understand the immunological and viral
determinants of congenital CMV infection. The Core has worked with both projects to define a comprehensive
sample size analysis for all experiments and will also analyze the data generated from those experiments to
identify correlates of placental transmission and viral load using descriptive statistics and statistical
visualization as well as univariate and multivariate regression modelling. Special attention is paid to the use of
use of methods that optimize information extraction from small sample sizes in both the experimental design
and subsequent analysis. An innovative aspect of the Core is the proposed development of mathematical
models and computer simulations to explore how different mechanistic assumptions affect viral population
growth and the likelihood of placental transmission under different immune control scenarios. These
mathematical models will take advantage of and integrate the viral population genetics analyses (Core 3), host
(Core 1) and CMV (Core 2) longitudinal measurements, and systematic experimental perturbations in naïve
and non-naïve hosts (Projects 1 and 2) to evaluate and generate hypotheses about how host-CMV
interactions modulate the risk of viral dissemination and placental transmission. The pharmacokinetics effort
within the Core will develop a semi-physiologic based PK model to characterize the maternal, fetal, and
maternal-fetal distribution of HIG after administration to RhCMV-infected rhesus dams or directly to RhCMV-
infected fetuses to generate optimal dosing regimens of HIG for materno-fetal prevention and treatment of
congenital CMV. Core 4 will also work with the Admin Core to define the schema to capture critical data
summaries in a REDCap database, create templates to track versioning and experimental metadata in the
Duke Box service used for data sharing across projects and cores. Finally, Core 4 will work with the Admin
Core and in consultation with the Duke Office of Advancing Scientific Integrity, Services, and Training (ASIST)
to establish Program-specific data management SOPs and Scientific Culture and Accountability Plan (SCAP)
for the Program. Core 4 supports all components in this Program (Project 1, 2; Core 1, 2, 3; Admin Core),
and provides a centralized resource for exploratory data analysis, statistical analysis, pharmacokinetics
studies, mathematical modeling, and data management. Core 4 will be central to the preparation of all Program
presentations, reports, and manuscripts that seek to establish the immunologic and virologic factors involved in
placental transmission of CMV as a strategy to guide future vaccine design and evaluation

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9982191
- **Project number:** 5P01AI129859-02
- **Recipient organization:** DUKE UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Cliburn C Chan
- **Activity code:** P01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $4,417
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** — → 2020-11-30

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9982191

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9982191, Core 4:  Statistics and Mathematical Modeling Core (5P01AI129859-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9982191. Licensed CC0.

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