# Optimizing HIV prevention portfolios targeting people who inject drugs using dynamic economic modeling

> **NIH NIH R01** · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · 2020 · $544,911

## Abstract

Project Summary/Abstract
 This proposal aims to optimize country and regional HIV prevention strategies by developing an
epidemic economic model of HIV prevention among people who inject drugs (PWID) for 108 countries
worldwide using newly available global systematic review data. PWID remain a key risk group for HIV
transmission, comprising the majority of new HIV infections in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Additionally, PWID are important drivers of HIV epidemics in the Middle East and North Africa, and South
and South East Asia. Even in countries with generalized HIV epidemics, PWID frequently have an elevated
burden of infection and poor access to prevention interventions, creating disparities which limit the ability to
achieve the UNAIDS target to reduce HIV incidence by 90% by 2030. Governments lack guidance on the
most effective and cost-effective intervention portfolio to prevent HIV among PWID. Newly available and
on-going global systematic review data compiled by our team provides important new data to address this
question. Our overarching aim is to optimize HIV prevention policymaking for PWID using dynamic
economic modeling informed by multiple large data sources. This proposal incorporates model
development, validation, and dissemination, through the following specific aims: 1) Develop an epidemic
model to estimate the impact of HIV prevention portfolios among PWID for every country with available HIV
prevalence data among PWID (108 countries worldwide), based on data from multiple large systematic
reviews. 2) Estimate the budgetary impact and cost-effectiveness of the optimal package of interventions
for achieving the UNAIDS HIV incidence target among PWID in each country. 3) Externally validate the
model in 9 key countries with the highest numbers of HIV-positive PWID. 4) Develop a user-friendly and
web-based multi-platform portal for dissemination of the epidemic economic model and associated data.
Our team of epidemic modelers, systematic review experts, and drug policy researchers are uniquely
poised to utilize these comprehensive new data to provide critical insight into how to tackle HIV epidemics
among PWID globally. Our work will have significant impact, guiding policymakers to make informed
decisions regarding preventing HIV among this vulnerable group. Our proposal addresses the Office of
AIDS Research high priority area of “reducing the incidence of HIV/AIDS.”

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9990686
- **Project number:** 5R01AI147490-02
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO
- **Principal Investigator:** Natasha Martin
- **Activity code:** R01 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $544,911
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2019-08-07 → 2023-07-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9990686

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9990686, Optimizing HIV prevention portfolios targeting people who inject drugs using dynamic economic modeling (5R01AI147490-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-22 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9990686. Licensed CC0.

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