# Modeling the impact of flavor bans among young adult tobacco users using discrete choice experiments and agent-based modeling

> **NIH NIH R03** · UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS · 2020 · $71,750

## Abstract

PROJECT SUMMARY
 The role of flavors added to tobacco products remains debatable in tobacco regulatory
research. From a harm reduction perspective, flavors may help cigarette smokers make the
switch to potentially less harmful tobacco products. At the same time, flavored non-combustible
tobacco products may serve as a precursor to cigarette smoking, and they are particularly
attractive to youth and young adults who otherwise may not smoke. Flavor bans have been
under discussion over years and have been recently heightened. In June 2018, San Francisco
approved a ban on menthol cigarettes and flavored electronic cigarettes. This ban has the
potential to spark a national trend. To support the evidence-based decision-making of FDA and
policy change at the national level, vigorous research on the impact of flavor bans are needed.
 The aim of this study is to examine the impact of two major flavor ban alternatives on
young adults who are users of tobacco/electronic nicotine delivery systems. We will assess the
empirical change in tobacco use in San Francisco, CA where flavor bans have been
implemented (Aim 1) and estimate the reaction patterns to flavor bans in a city where the policy
has NOT been implemented using discrete choice experiments (DCEs) (Aim 2). Afterwards, we
will develop an agent-based model (ABM) with the result from DCEs (Aim 2) serving as the core
behavior pattern at the individual-level, and empirical patterns at the population-level (Aim 1)
serving for the ABM's assessment. As a bottom-up approach, the ABM can examine various
flavor ban policies in both cities (Aim 3). Combining empirical results, estimations from
hypothetical experiments, and simulations of various flavor bans' scenarios in various contexts,
the evidence and insights generated from the proposed study will allow researchers to explore
the implications of a flavor ban policy on a given environment. Results may also be extrapolated
to the United States at large.

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9993465
- **Project number:** 5R03DA048460-02
- **Recipient organization:** UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS
- **Principal Investigator:** Yong Yang
- **Activity code:** R03 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $71,750
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2019-08-15 → 2022-07-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9993465

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9993465, Modeling the impact of flavor bans among young adult tobacco users using discrete choice experiments and agent-based modeling (5R03DA048460-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-23 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9993465. Licensed CC0.

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