# Quantifying the latent-cause inference process in humans

> **NIH NIH R21** · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · 2020 · $155,355

## Abstract

Quantifying the Latent-Cause Inference Process in Humans
Events in our lives can occur in seemingly random manner, yet we tend to make meaning by inferring underlying hidden,
or latent, causes for events. When this process goes well, we accurately attribute our circumstances to their true cause
such that we can behave appropriately and learn for the future. When this process goes wrong, we might make false
attributions, overgeneralizing any negative outcomes to our own behavior, or inventing idiosyncratic accounts for every
situation. We use latent cause inference in all aspects of our lives – from interpreting our visual world to complex social
decision-making. In my lab, we have developed computational models of latent-cause inference and used this framework
to successfully predict learning (Gershman et al., 2013), memory (Gershman et al. 2014), and even social evaluation (Shin
& Niv, under review). However, this previous work has focused on the conceptual level, only testing qualitative
predictions of our framework. This is because there has been no task that allows the measurement and quantification of
latent cause inference in individuals. Developing a precise, quantitative model of this process will be critical for
understanding the neurobiological circuits that support successful inference as well as when and why they can fail.
Computationally, the process of latent cause inference can be parameterized in a formal Bayesian model that relies on
three parameters: how likely it is that a new cause occurs, how variable or homogeneous are the events that a cause tend to
create, and how long is each cause active. Different people may have different settings for these parameters,
corresponding to fundamental tendencies in interpreting the world that may vary across individuals and situations. Here,
we develop a novel paradigm in which participants view ambiguous stimuli and cluster them according to their perceptual
features. This allows us to quantify, for each individual, the parameters that they are using when making inferences. Thus,
our task will allow precise quantification of the subprocesses involve in latent cause inference for the first time.
In Aim 1, we will characterize latent-cause inference in a large online sample of human subjects and relate
parameters of the inference process to transdiagnostic dimensional constructs of mental illness.
In Aim 2, we will establish test-retest reliability of our measurements and determine whether parameters of the
process correspond to stable individual traits, or rather follow the symptom state of the individual.
This project will use state-of-the-art methods for characterizing complex cognitive processes using precise, quantitative
models and collecting large-scale quantities of data by running experiments through an online platform. We will use the
model to quantify the process of latent cause inference in individual subjects and map model parameters to self-report
measures of mental-health rel...

## Key facts

- **NIH application ID:** 9998036
- **Project number:** 5R21MH120798-02
- **Recipient organization:** PRINCETON UNIVERSITY
- **Principal Investigator:** Yael Niv
- **Activity code:** R21 (R01, R21, SBIR, etc.)
- **Funding institute:** NIH
- **Fiscal year:** 2020
- **Award amount:** $155,355
- **Award type:** 5
- **Project period:** 2019-08-16 → 2022-05-31

## Primary source

NIH RePORTER: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9998036

## Citation

> US National Institutes of Health, RePORTER application 9998036, Quantifying the latent-cause inference process in humans (5R21MH120798-02). Retrieved via AI Analytics 2026-05-24 from https://api.ai-analytics.org/grant/nih/9998036. Licensed CC0.

---

*[NIH grants dataset](/datasets/nih-grants) · CC0 1.0*